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France forward Kylian Mbappe takes a penalty as we offer our best quarterfinals picks for the Euro 2024 clash featuring France and Portugal.
France forward Kylian Mbappe shoots during a penalty shootout in the 2022 World Cup final at Lusail Stadium. Photo by Yukihito Taguchi via USA TODAY Sports

Eight years after France's fateful day against Portugal in the Euro 2016 final, Didier Deschamps' side seeks revenge in the Euro 2024 quarterfinals as we detail our Portugal vs. France predictions for Friday's long-awaited European Championship rematch. 

They say revenge is best served cold. Almost a decade after their gut-wrenching final defeat, France envisions exacting arctic-like, permafrost revenge on the Portuguese while securing advancement to the Euro 2024 semifinals.

Neither team has been playing particularly inspired football, but that won't matter to either coach if they can punch their semifinal ticket.

Friday's match will take place at Volksparkstadion in Hamburg, Germany, with a kick-off set for 3 p.m. ET (Fox Sports). Our best soccer betting sites are slotting France as the consensus favorite. Les Bleus are getting the third-shortest Euro 2024 odds to win it all, three spots ahead of Portugal. 

France boast a tournament-best defense to thank for their place in the quarterfinals. Les Bleus have allowed one goal in four matches, which came from the spot against Poland. Only Spain have conceded as few goals.

Portugal vs. France predictions for Friday

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Portugal vs. France score prediction

France 1 - Portugal 0

This quarterfinal is tailor-fit for a dogged defensive slugfest. Four of the last five head-to-head matchups between the nations and five of the previous seven featured one goal.

France field arguably the best defense in the tournament, if not the world, and Portugal have been inconsistent throughout. Portugal scored three of their five goals against an inferior Turkish defense while relying on an own goal against Czechia in the opener. That leaves just one goal scored from open play.

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Astonishingly, that's one more than France, who have yet to score in that setting. France beat Austria and Belgium thanks to own goals, while the other came from a Kylian Mbappe penalty. 

FanDuel is the best sportsbook for the correct score market. It consistently offers the best price. If France triumphs 1-0 after 90 minutes, the +600 odds will pay a profit of $60 on a $10 bet. 

Best odds: +600 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 14.29%

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Portugal vs. France anytime goal scorer prediction

Kylian Mbappe, France

Mbappe's only goal in seven European Championship matches came on a penalty against Poland in the final group-stage encounter. His broken nose in the opener derailed the early stages of his Euro 2024, and he hasn't quite recovered.

However, this is Mbappé we're talking about, and he loves the limelight.

He's logged 12 goals in 14 World Cup matches, so it's only a matter of time before Mbappe breaks out at the Euros. 

Mbappé was much better in the Round of 16, coming close a few times to potting his first European Championship goal from open play. The script is set for him to do exactly that against the Portugal defense, particularly when given the chance to exploit the 41-year-old Pepe.  

The +187 odds that bet365 offers represent the best value across our best sports betting apps, and a $10 bet will pay a profit of $18.70. 

Best odds: +187 via bet365 | Implied probability: 34.84%

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Portugal vs. France best bet

France ML

Like any game at this stage of a major competition, the disparity between teams is almost negligible. Portugal required a 109th-minute goal to win the 2016 final, and I expect this matchup to follow a similar script in reverse. However, this time I expect the match to be won in the opening 90 minutes.

France's rearguard has been more miserly than a tightwad on a stringent budget.

I don't expect that to change in the quarterfinals against a team that hasn't scored in the last two matches. Admittedly, Portugal's match against Georgia was an outlier, as the former rested some players and an effervescent and highly motivated Georgian side then caught the team off guard. 

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But the quartet of N'Golo Kanté, Aurélien Tchouaméni, William Gabriel Saliba, and Dayotchanculle Upamecano have been more solid than a retaining concrete wall, nullifying the threat that some of the world's best teams offer.

France won't be able to rely on the suspended Adrien Rabiot, but that shouldn't be too consequential. This side is built to defend for days, and they possess the attacking flair to score the decisive goal. Cristiano Ronaldo has been a frustrated figure, and while he can score at any moment, the megastar isn't the perennial threat of past years. 

The +150 odds for France to win in 90 minutes will pay a profit of $15 if the wager hits.  

Best odds: +150 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 40%

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Portugal vs. France odds & game info

TeamDraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Portugal+215+230+220+230+230
France+150+145+140+140+140
ML tie+205+190+200+200+200
  • When: Friday, July 5 (3 p.m. ET)
  • Where: Volksparkstadion (Hamburg, Germany)
  • How to watch: Fox Sports (U.S.), TSN (Canada)
  • Favorite: France (+150 via DraftKings)

Portugal-France predictions made Thursday at 2 p.m. ET.

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