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Newcastle vs. Chelsea Picks, Predictions Premier League Matchday 16: Watch For Draws Ahead of World Cup

Anthony Wootton

Last Updated: November 11, 2022 5:57 AM EST • 2 min 28 sec read.

Chelsea midfielder Raheem Sterling celebrates after scoring the first goal of the match against Red Bull Salzburg.
Chelsea midfielder Raheem Sterling celebrates after scoring the first goal of the match against Red Bull Salzburg. Photo by Adrian Dennis via AFP.

Chelsea are winless in their last four Premier League matches and were dumped out of the League Cup by Manchester City on Wednesday. Meanwhile Newcastle United are flying high in the league, having lost just once all season. Check out our Newcastle-Chelsea picks.

The Toon are third in the table and cemented well within the Champions League places, four points above Manchester United in fifth.

Meanwhile, the Blues are down in seventh and will fall nine points behind Newcastle if they lose on Saturday. Graham Potter’s side needs to start scoring if it's to maintain its top four ambitions going into the World Cup break.

Here are our Newcastle-Chelsea Premier League picks for Matchday 16 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Newcastle vs. Chelsea Game Info

Date: Saturday, Nov. 12, 12:30 p.m. ET
TV: NBC, Peacock
Location: St James’ Park, Newcastle, England
Weather: 52 degrees, 5% chance of precipitation, 6-mph winds

Newcastle vs. Chelsea Picks

  • Moneyline: Draw (+240 via FanDuel)
  • Over/Under: Under 2.5 (-114 via Caesars)
  • Prop bet: Raheem Sterling to score or assist (+180 via DraftKings)

Newcastle vs. Chelsea ML Pick

Draw (+240) ★★★

The pressure is already on Chelsea boss Potter. The Blues have taken just two points from their last 12 available. Newcastle have won their last four Premier League games, and the last time they won five in a row was in October-November 2014. They've won their last two by scores of 4-0 and 4-1, respectively. The last time they netted at least four goals in three consecutive league games was 61 years ago.

Newcastle have lost three of their last four Premier League home games against Chelsea (one win), as many as they had in their previous 14. Chelsea have won seven of their last eight Premier League games against Newcastle (one loss), including the last four in a row without conceding.

For their part, Chelsea have lost their last two Premier League games, as many as they had in their previous 15 (eight wins, five draws). The Blues haven't lost three consecutive league games since November 2015, under Jose Mourinho.

We’ve seen star players hit with injuries - and their World Cup dreams ended - in recent matches across the globe. With the biggest tournament on the planet looming large on the horizon, expect players to perform with caution. It could be a record weekend for draws across the league.

Newcastle vs. Chelsea O/U Pick

Under 2.5 (-114) ★★★★

Newcastle are free-scoring at the moment, but the eight goals they’ve scored in their past two league games were against bottom-half teams. Only five clubs have had fewer shots in the Premier League this season than Chelsea (151), with their average of 11.6 per game their lowest on record in a single campaign since 1997-98.

Meanwhile, only Liverpool and Manchester City have had more shots than Newcastle (208), with their average of 14.9 per game their highest since 2013-14 (15.2).

Chelsea can’t afford to lose this match. Defeat will dent their top-four aspirations and provide a major boost for Newcastle’s. This is too big a game and too close to a midseason World Cup, so expect many of the players to cruise. Goals could be tight.

Newcastle vs. Chelsea Prop Pick

Sterling to score or assist (+180) ★★★★

Chelsea’s Raheem Sterling has been involved in six goals in his last six Premier League appearances against Newcastle, scoring five and assisting one. Only against Bournemouth and Watford (nine each) has he scored more Premier League goals than his eight against Newcastle.

He made a substitute appearance against his former club, Manchester City, in the League Cup on Wednesday but failed to help the Blues come back in that game. Although he hasn’t had a goal involvement in the Premier League since the end of August, Sterling did score in the Champions League earlier this month.

Newcastle is a team he likes facing, and he’ll be keen to remind England manager Gareth Southgate of his talent with the Three Lions’ World Cup opener against Iran coming up on Nov. 21.

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Newcastle-Chelsea picks made 11/11/2022 at 9:11 a.m. ET.

Written By:
Anthony Wootton
Anthony is an accredited NFL journalist and has been reporting on the league for over a decade, covering the London games for the BBC and other broadcast outlets. He's presented a North American sports show for national radio across the UK, which is now the TransAtlantic Sports Show podcast. Anthony has also produced and presented radio documentaries on football for global audiences. He has years of betting experience, writing NFL tips for some of the industry's biggest sportsbooks. He's a producer of sports content, including Premier League, LaLiga, Bundesliga, Champions League, and international soccer. He's a keen follower of sport, and a long-time sufferer of English Championship team, Blackburn Rovers. He's a keen runner and completed a challenge of running every day in 2021, which included a minimum distance of 5km in the rules.