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Erling Haaland of Manchester City celebrates his second goal against Southampton and we offer our top odds and predictions for the Champions League quarterfinals' first leg.
Erling Haaland of Manchester City celebrates his second goal against Southampton. Photo by Shaun Boggust/Colorsport/DPPI via AFP.

Bayern Munich are the only team to have won all eight of their Champions League games this season. Manchester City are unbeaten in the competition and have a perfect record at home, averaging 4.25 goals at the Etihad. Read on for our Man City-Bayern Munich pick for the Champions League Quarterfinal based on the best Champions League odds.

Despite all of his domestic success at Manchester City, manager Pep Guardiola knows that he will be judged on whether he delivers a Champions League title to the club or not. He has admitted it. In 2021, he took City to the final but lost to Chelsea, who were then managed by Bayern Munich’s new head coach, Thomas Tuchel.

But City didn’t have Erling Haaland then. Can the Norwegian help fire the English club into the final four against Guardiola’s former side? 

Here is our best Man City vs. Bayern Munich pick (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Man City vs. Bayern Munich pick

Over 2.5 (-148 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Of all the eight remaining teams in the tournament, only Napoli (21.7) have a higher xG than City (19). Bayern are in the top half of the final eight with an xg of 16.3. While Bayern have scored in every Champions League game so far this season, City have failed to find the net twice, but scored in every home game. In the last round they put seven past German opponents, RB Leipzig, including five goals from Erling Haaland.

City have won their last 10 home games against German sides in the UEFA Champions League by an aggregate score of 39-10, including all four games in this run during the knockout stages.

Haaland is no stranger to Bayern, having scored five goals in seven appearances against them. He lost all seven of those encounters. 

City manager Pep Guardiola has won 54% of his games in the knockout stages of the Champions League (39/72). Among those with 30-plus games in the KO stages (including finals), he has the best win percentage of any manager and is the only one to have won more than half of his games. This will be the fourth meeting against Bayern Munich’s Thomas Tuchel in a cup competition, with Tuchel winning two of the previous three.

Leroy Sane returns to Manchester to face his former club and has four Champions League goals already this season. Leon Goretzka has been directly involved in more goals than any other Bayern Munich player in the current Champions League campaign with six – two goals and four assists. 

These are two excellent sides with plenty of goals between them. Bank on offense in this match when making your Champions League best bets for the quarterfinals' first leg.

Man City vs. Bayern Munich best odds

FanDuel (-148)

Over 2.5Over 2.5Over 2.5Over 2.5Over 2.5

Erling Haaland has scored 11 goals in his last four outings for City, including five in his last Champions League game. The Norwegian can find the net at any moment. Bayern are the most dominant side left in the competition with a perfect campaign. 

Both teams are unbeaten in Europe, which increases our opportunity to win with this play. There’s quite a difference between BetMGM’s odds at -167 to the -148 from FanDuel, so make sure you shop around. 

Man City vs. Bayern Munich odds analysis

This match points to goals from both sides. Because they’re both unbeaten, it’s difficult to back a winner, therefore betting the Over seems the logical play for this tie. 

City are the home favorites, with the best price at -130 via DraftKings for the moneyline. Bayern are +350 at FanDuel and PointsBet. Tuchel has a very good record against Guardiola, therefore I can’t pick anyone SU with confidence. 

If you want to bet on Haaland to score again, his best price as an anytime scorer is currently -125 via FanDuel.

Man City vs. Bayern Munich game info

  • Date: Tuesday, Apr. 11, 3 p.m. ET
  • TV: Paramount+, VIX+
  • Location: Etihad Stadium, Manchester
  • Weather: 48 degrees, 70% chance of precipitation, 11-mph winds

Manchester City-Bayern Munich pick made 04/10/2023 at 7 a.m. ET.

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