Liverpool vs. Real Madrid Champions League Final Picks: Two European Giants Set to Square Off

The 2022 UEFA Champions League Final is almost upon us, with Liverpool poised to take on La Liga champions Real Madrid. We dive into all the angles with our Liverpool-Real Madrid Champions League picks.

Premier League giants Liverpool and Spanish heavyweights Real Madrid square off for European supremacy in a rematch of the 2018 Champions League Final.

Both teams are in vastly different places than the last time the two sides met in Kyiv four years ago.

Real Madrid were gunning for a third straight Champions League title that day, and they were the clear favorites against a Liverpool squad that finished fourth in the Premier League. The club ended up winning 3-1, with Gareth Bale's famous goal propelling Real Madrid before he added another marker late. Karim Benzema also scored off a mistake from then Liverpool goalkeeper Loris Karius.

The match also marked Cristiano Ronaldo's final game at Real Madrid. The team made the semi-finals in 2021 after two straight Round of 16 exits, and now it's back again for a record 17th appearance. Real Madrid believe they have a divine right to win this trophy every year, more so than any other team in the competition.

Meanwhile, Liverpool have since established themselves as one of the teams to beat in Europe, winning this competition the very next year and taking their first domestic league title in 30 seasons in 2020. Their excellence while recruiting players that fit manager Jurgen Klopp's system perfectly has transformed them into a powerhouse, one that likely won't stop anytime soon.

However, this time Liverpool won't be the feel-good story as the plucky underdog. They will be the clear favorite to win their seventh Champions League title during the club's third finals appearance in five years.

Here are my top betting picks and predictions for the Liverpool-Real Madrid Champions League Final (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Liverpool vs. Real Madrid Game Info

Date/Time: Saturday, May 28, 3 p.m. ETTV: CBSLocation: Stade de France, Saint-Denis, FranceWeather: 77 degrees, mainly sunny, 20% chance of precipitation, 9-mph winds

Liverpool vs. Real Madrid Odds Analysis

Liverpool are the consensus favorites across the board to win in 90 minutes, and they've been given +110 odds through DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM. There's little variation for Real Madrid to win in 90 too, with FanDuel offering the best price at +240. You can find +270 at Caesars for a full-time draw, the best among our top-rated U.S. sportsbooks.

If you want to lay a bit more chalk, take Liverpool to win the cup at -176 through FanDuel. That will cover a full-time win, a victory in extra time, and a triumph on penalties for the Reds. Real Madrid to win the cup is at +148 through FanDuel too.

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Road to the Final

Liverpool

The Reds were drawn into a tricky Group B with Atletico Madrid, Porto, and A.C. Milan. They didn't struggle while going undefeated in the group and collecting all possible 18 points.

They faced a tough draw against Italian champions Inter Milan in the Round of 16, but Liverpool ended up winning 2-1 on aggregate. The Reds also won 6-4 over two legs against Benfica before surviving a scare in the second leg against Villarreal during the semi-finals to win 5-2 on aggregate. Only Manchester City has generated more expected goals (xG) during the competition than Liverpool.

https://twitter.com/LFC/status/1529064668278321155

Real Madrid

Real Madrid suffered a shocking 2-1 home defeat to Moldovan minnows Sheriff Tiraspol during Matchday 2, which many have forgotten about amid the club's amazing run. It was one of the biggest Champions League upsets in recent history.

That could have sent Real's Champions League campaign into a deep spiral. But Los Blancos won the rest of their group-stage matches to set up an incredible run during the knockout stage. Real Madrid came back while behind on aggregate against PSG, Chelsea, and Manchester City in three consecutive rounds, including an unbelievable last-minute comeback against City on May 4.

Projected Lineups

Liverpool

Alisson; Robertson, Van Dijk, Konate, Alexander-Arnold; Henderson, Jones, Keita; Diaz, Mane, Salah

There was a slight injury concern after forward Mohamad Salah went down during the FA Cup Final against Chelsea, and center-back Virgil Van Dijk was subbed out of the game too. But Klopp said both players will be ready for the final on May 28.

Thiago Alcantara and Fabinho will likely miss this game, meaning Liverpool will be without two key players in the middle of the pitch.

Real Madrid

Courtois; Carvajal, Eder Militao, Alaba, Mendy; Kroos, Casemiro, Modric; Rodrygo, Benzema, Vinicius Jr.

Madrid clinched their La Liga title on April 30 against Espanyol. They've enjoyed the luxury of rotating their lineup in all games since a victory over City on May 4.

Benzema played the full 90 minutes against Real Betis on May 20, and Luka Modric played 70 minutes. Manager Carlo Ancelotti's biggest decision will likely be whether to keep semi-final hero Rodrygo on the bench as a substitute or start him. He started on Friday against Betis.

Liverpool vs. Real Madrid Picks

Liverpool to win and Under 4.5 goals (+145 via DraftKings)????Luis Diaz anytime scorer (+240 via FanDuel)???

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Liverpool vs. Real Madrid Predictions

Liverpool and Under 4.5 (+145)

I usually like to back draws in major European finals. You can often get good value while banking on teams playing more conservatively, especially during the later stages of regular time. However, that won't happen here, and Liverpool will be able to win this match in 90 minutes.

Both teams have combined for just one draw throughout the competition. Liverpool tied 3-3 with Benfica during their second leg on April 13, a game they didn't need to win to advance to the semi-finals. Liverpool also holds the advantage in terms of expected goals (xG), generating 24.1 xG to Real Madrid's 20.6. The club has also earned a decisive lead in expected goals against both in the Champions League and domestically. Of teams that reached the quarterfinals, Liverpool are third in xGA (10), while Real are at 16.6. Liverpool also finished second in xGA in the Premier League this past season, and Real Madrid was all the way down in 12th during league play.

Being without Thiago will sting for Liverpool. But the Reds have shown all season while competing in four different competitions that they possess the depth to handle such a loss. Jordan Henderson is a fine replacement in the midfield, and all signs point to Van Dijk and Salah starting, which makes me even more confident.

Finally, instead of taking a total on the nose, we'll combine it with Liverpool's moneyline to give our ticket some serious juice. While taking the Under is never fun, only three finals have finished with five-plus goals over the last 50 years, two of which went to extra time.

Diaz anytime goalscorer (+240)

Luis Diaz has enjoyed a solid start to his Liverpool career since coming over in the January transfer window from F.C. Porto, especially in the Champions League.

He's scored two goals despite only starting three of his team's six knockout games, and his 0.56 goals per 90 minutes are fourth on the squad. He's started more games than Roberto Firmino, whose 1.45 goals per 90 are inflated due to the game against Benfica when there wasn't really much pressure on the squad.

Whoever lines up against Madrid fullback Dani Carvajal should easily win that matchup, and that could be Diaz for the majority of the clash. Diaz is only ranked as the ninth most likely to score at +240, which seems a bit off to me. He's been given the eighth-highest odds at DraftKings.

Where to Bet on Champions League Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

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Liverpool-Real Madrid Champions League picks made on 5/23/2022 at 6:03 p.m. ET.