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Lautaro Martinez of Inter celebrates a goal during the Italian championship Serie A football match between FC Internazionale and SS Lazio as we make our Inter Milan-AC Milan pick.
Lautaro Martinez of Inter celebrates a goal during the Italian championship Serie A football match between FC Internazionale and SS Lazio. Photo by Tiziano Ballabio/LiveMedia/DPPI via AFP.

Inter stormed out to a 2-0 lead within 11 minutes of their UEFA Champions League semifinal first-leg match against Milan. Now holding a lead, the former has been tough to score against this season, especially in the knockout stages. Check out our Inter vs. Milan prediction based on the best Champions League odds from our best sportsbooks.

Things went from bad to worse for Milan, who lost influential midfielder Ismael Bennacer for the rest of the season in their defeat to Inter. His absence was notable on Saturday when they lost 2-0 to Spezia, a team fighting for survival at the bottom of Serie A.

Meanwhile, Inter won 4-2 to open up a four-point gap in the race for a top-four finish and Champions League qualification for next season (should neither win the tournament this year).

In Champions League history, only one team has won the first leg of the semifinal by two-plus goals and then failed to progress. Will Milan pull off a miracle? 

Here is our best Inter vs. Milan Champions League semifinal second-leg prediction (odds via PointsBet; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

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Inter vs. Milan prediction

Under 2.5 goals (-130 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐

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This tie looked over as soon as Inter went up 2-0 so early. Simone Inzaghi’s side hasn’t trailed at any point in the knockout stages of the Champions League this season while winning three times and drawing twice, keeping a clean sheet in four of the five games. 

Milan’s xG was 0.9 and Inter’s was 2 during the first leg. Milan maintained the bulk of the possession, but they only managed two shots on target. Inter created more opportunities and finished with five shots on target, two of which found the back of the net.

Milan have only won one of their last 16 games as the away side in the knockout stages of the competition (eight draws and seven losses), which was back in 2007 against Bayern Munich. They’ve only scored 15 goals in 24 away games in the knockout stages of the Champions League, an average of 0.6 per game. Although they’re "away" at their own stadium on Tuesday, the club's odds of making up the two goals needed against a side that’s kept a clean sheet in four of its last five knockout games are slim. 

Inter will look to control possession and run the clock down as best they can. This second leg could be a tough watch with so few opportunities. Milan haven’t scored against their rivals in each of the last three clashes. These are two teams that know each other well. Inter hold the advantage, and they’ll continue to play with a solid defense and keep Milan at bay. 

That’s why we’re taking the Under on the total. Milan simply aren’t creating anything, and they don’t look likely to on Tuesday. Don’t be surprised if this game ends 0-0.

Inter vs. Milan best odds

PointsBet (-130)

Under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals

Inter are the overwhelming favorites for this match at our best sports betting sites. The best price for them straight up is +110 via BetMGM. The books aren't confident in Milan finding the two goals that will bring them back into this tie. They’re +1500 to qualify for the next round, whereas the best price for Inter to advance is -4000.

Milan were dealt a blow just before the first leg when Rafael Leao was ruled out with injury. He didn’t feature over the weekend, but Leao is expected to play on Tuesday. How healthy is he going to be though? Ismael Bennacer has been operating as a No. 10 for them and he’s missing. It’s hard to see where the goals will come from for Milan, and Inter don’t need to score. 

The only factor stopping this from being a four-star play is there’s no "away" team in this contest. The atmosphere is going to be electric, and although most will be supporting Inter, it’s Milan’s stadium too.

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Inter vs. Milan game info

  • Date: Tuesday, May 16, 3 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS, Paramount+
  • Location: San Siro Stadium, Milan
  • Weather: 64 degrees, 9% chance of precipitation, 5-mph winds

Inter Milan-AC Milan pick made 05/14/2023 at 3 a.m. ET.

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