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Chelsea vs. Liverpool FA Cup Final Picks: Two of England’s Best Meet Again

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Chelsea vs. Liverpool FA Cup Final Picks: Two of England’s Best Meet Again
Trent Alexander-Arnold of Liverpool during the EFL Cup final against Chelsea. Photo by Nigel Keene/ProSportsImages/DPPI via AFP.

The oldest football tournament in history takes center stage this weekend, as two of England’s most elite clubs are set to battle in the FA Cup final. Can Liverpool repeat the success they achieved in the EFL Cup final, or will Chelsea get their revenge? Check out our Chelsea-Liverpool FA Cup final picks.

The Premier League’s second- and third-place teams meet for the fourth time this season on Saturday in the FA Cup final. The FA Cup is one of football’s most celebrated tournaments and its oldest at 151 years of existence. Chelsea lost in last year’s final, falling 1-0 to Leicester City.

Liverpool and Chelsea have played to a near-complete stalemate this campaign, with two draws in the Premier League and an EFL Cup final on Feb. 27 that ended only after both goalkeepers took their turn in the penalty shootout. However, the two clubs are separated by a considerable margin of 16 points in the league standings, making Liverpool the favorites in this affair.

They take to Wembley Stadium once again in another effort to determine which side is the superior one in this season’s head-to-head matchup.

Here are my picks and predictions for Saturday’s FA Cup final match between Chelsea and Liverpool (odds via BetMGM and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Chelsea vs. Liverpool Game Info

Date: Saturday, May 14, 11:45 a.m. ET
TV: ESPN+, Sportsnet One
Location: Wembley Stadium, London, England

Chelsea vs. Liverpool Odds Analysis

For those looking to pick either team on the Moneyline, DraftKings Sportsbook is offering Liverpool at +110. Comparatively, BetMGM has the Reds at +105 and FanDuel has them at +100. Underdog backers can snatch up Chelsea on the ML at +250 at DraftKings.

FanDuel offers the best price for Liverpool to lift the trophy at -168, while DraftKings has Chelsea at +150.

In terms of playing a total, that will likely come down to whether N’Golo Kante and/or Mateo Kovacic are fit. If either are able to play, Chelsea could frustrate Liverpool and achieve a result similar to the EFL Cup final. In that case, DraftKings is offering Under 2.5 at -110.

On the flip side, if both midfielders miss the clash, you may want to take a look at Over 2.5 at -115 at DraftKings. Pay attention to the starting lineups, which will come an hour before kick-off.

Chelsea vs. Liverpool FA Cup Picks

  • Liverpool to lift the cup (-168 via FanDuel) ★★★★★
  • Mohamed Salah to score (+150 via FanDuel) ★★★★
  • Trent Alexander-Arnold assist (+290 via FanDuel) ★★★
  • Chelsea to score first (+137 via BetMGM) ★★★

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Chelsea vs. Liverpool FA Cup Predictions

Liverpool to lift the cup (-168)

With all three previous matches this season ending in a draw after 90 minutes, I’ll opt for Liverpool to be crowned champions rather than pick them on the ML.

Of the three prior games, the 1-1 draw on Aug. 28 was perhaps the most lopsided. Liverpool dominated play to the tune of a plus-1.8 expected goal differential. The subsequent 2-2 draw was a much tighter affair, and the EFL Cup final came down to which goalkeeper could score their penalty against the other. At this rate, The FA may need to develop a new way to determine a winner in this one.

Liverpool enter this contest as the hotter of the two clubs. They’ve captured 13 points from their last five Premier League games and are fresh off a comeback win over Villarreal to progress to the Champions League final. Meanwhile, Chelsea have taken just eight points from their last five league games, including a 2-2 draw at home to Wolves and a 1-0 defeat away to Everton.

In comparison to Liverpool, Chelsea lack a truly reliable goal-scorer. Mason Mount leads the Blues with 11 Premier League goals, followed by out-of-favor striker Romelu Lukaku (eight) and Kai Havertz (seven).

Opposite them are Liverpool’s triumvirate of menacing forwards. Mohamed Salah leads the Premier League with 22 goals, and Diogo Jota and Sadio Mane share fourth place with 15 apiece. Roberto Firmino and Luis Diaz have five and four Premier League goals, respectively, with the former finding the back of the net more regularly per 90 minutes than any Chelsea player.

Liverpool’s midfield took a hit when Fabinho limped off the pitch in the 30th minute of their May 10 clash with Aston Villa, but they have the personnel to field a strong unit. A combination of Jordan Henderson, Thiago, Naby Keita, Curtis Jones, and James Milner will have their work cut out for them, though, if Kante and Kovacic are fit enough to play.

At the back, Liverpool have the edge thanks to perhaps the best center-back in the world in Virgil van Dijk and the full-back partnership of Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andy Robertson. The Reds also enjoy a significant advantage in goal with Alisson serving as one of the top ‘keepers in football.

Liverpool will simply have too much for Chelsea, and just as they did the last time these teams met at Wembley, the Reds will hoist the trophy.

SEE ALSO: Top Serie A Matchday 37 Picks

Salah to score (+150)

If there’s one player you should always look to bet on to score, it’s Salah. The Egyptian leads the Premier League with 22 goals and scored in both league affairs against Chelsea this season. He averages nearly four shots per game, and he also regularly takes penalties for Liverpool. Salah took five of Liverpool’s 20 shots in the EFL Cup final.

The goal-scoring machine enters this match well-rested following only 18 minutes of action against Villa. Look for Salah to fly out of the gates on Saturday and pepper the Chelsea net until he eventually finds the back of it.

You can also bet on Salah to have two or more shots on target at +160 with FanDuel.

Alexander-Arnold assist (+290)

Alexander-Arnold controlled the tempo for Liverpool in their Premier League matches with Chelsea this season. He paced his side in touches and completed passes in both games, and he added an assist in the first meeting. The right-back is regularly involved, whipping in crosses, free-kicks, and corners.

The 23-year-old could become even more integral in Liverpool’s attack if they concede first, which they’ve done in each of the past three games. He fired in a combined 19 crosses in his last three matches, and he provided 10 such deliveries in the EFL Cup final.

Alexander-Arnold’s 12 Premier League assists this season are second only to Salah’s 13. And while a helper in this match won’t contribute to that tally, it will go a long way in Liverpool’s efforts to win the cup.

Chelsea to score first (+137)

As previously mentioned, Liverpool have conceded first in each of their last three games, with two of those coming extremely early. Aston Villa scored the opener — their only goal — in the third minute, and Villarreal similarly scored in the third minute of their Champions League second leg.

The Reds fell just short after conceding first to Spurs, settling for a 1-1 draw. However, they managed to come back to win both on Tuesday and in their trip to Spain against Villarreal. Chelsea may get the first goal, but Liverpool will get the last laugh and hoist the FA Cup.

Where to Bet on FA Cup Picks

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Chelsea-Liverpool picks made 5/13/2022 at 12:00 a.m. ET.