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Benfica's Brazilian forward David Neres as we look at our Champions League best bets
Benfica's Brazilian forward David Neres reacts during the Portuguese league football match between SL Benfica and FC Porto at the Luz stadium in Lisbon on April 7, 2023. Photo by Patricia de Melo Moreira via AFP.

Europe’s premier football tournament is down to its final eight teams. Read on for our Champions League best bets for the quarterfinals' first leg based on the best soccer odds.

Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola faces his former club, Bayern Munich, in the standout tie of the round. City have won each of their last 10 home games against German opposition, although Bayern have won three of their last four away games against English teams. 

Reigning European champions Real Madrid host Chelsea on Wednesday. The Blues lost to Wolves in the Premier League on Saturday in what was Frank Lampard’s first game back at the club. Lampard has been installed as interim manager until the end of the season. This is the third consecutive season these two clubs have met in the knockout stages of the competition. The winner from each of the last two meetings eventually became European champions.

There will be an Italian representative in the semis because AC Milan and Napoli meet in this round on Wednesday. Milan beat their opponents 4-0 in Serie A earlier this month.

The other quarterfinal features the impressive Portuguese outfit Benfica host Inter on Tuesday.

Here are our Champions League best bets for the quarterfinals' first leg (odds via FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, and PointsBet); pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Champions League matches and odds

(odds via FanDuel)

  • Benfica (+125) vs. Inter Milan (+240)
  • Man City (-165) vs. Bayern Munich (+440)
  • AC Milan (+175) vs. Napoli (+170)
  • Real Madrid (-135) vs. Chelsea (+390)

Check out our soccer picks.

Champions League best bets

  • Moneyline: Benfica (+125 via FanDuel) vs. Inter Milan ⭐⭐⭐
  • Spread: Real Madrid -1.5 (+190 via DraftKings) vs. Chelsea ⭐⭐⭐
  • Total: Man City vs. Bayern Munich Over 2.5 (-148 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Prop: AC Milan vs. Napoli both teams to score: Yes (-115 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐

Check out our best Champions League odds.

Top Champions League picks

Moneyline: Benfica ML vs. Inter Milan (+125 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Benfica have been excellent in the competition this season. They’re one of only three teams (Bayern Munich and Manchester City) to be undefeated so far during the campaign. Their group included European giants Juventus and PSG. Only Napoli (25) have scored more goals than the Portuguese club in the tournament. They’ve also won each of their last four Champions League matches.

Inter booked their place in the last eight by eliminating Portuguese side FC Porto in the previous round. Simone Inzaghi’s side won 1-0 on aggregate across both legs, despite the expected goals aggregate in the tie being 2.1–3.5. Benfica, however, have also dispatched Italian opposition in this year’s competition, beating Juventus twice in the group stage.

Inter have struggled this season and face a challenge to finish in the top four in Serie A. They head into Tuesday’s match winless in four domestic games. During Friday’s 1-1 draw with lowly Salernitana, they had an xG of 0.86 and xGA of 2.98. Their Champions League xG (10.7) and xGA (10.4) are the lowest of all the final eight heading into the latest round of ties.

Benfica’s 12-game unbeaten run in Liga Portugal came to an end at home to title rivals Porto, losing 2-1 on Friday. Despite the defeat, they do have a seven-point lead with five games remaining. They’ve also averaged three goals per game at home in this season’s Champions League.

Benfica have been very good in this competition and excellent at home. Inter may be the bigger club, but they’re having a rocky season. Form indicates a home win in this contest. I’m confident putting three stars on this play because of Benfica’s ability to score and unbeaten European record.

Spread: Real Madrid -1.5 vs. Chelsea (+190 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Chelsea face the daunting trip to the Spanish capital without a permanent head coach and without a win in four matches in all competitions. Club legend Lampard is back in charge until the end of the season. The Blues lost to Wolves in his first game back in charge on Saturday.

Since dispatching Liverpool in the last round by an aggregate score of 6-2, Real Madrid have averaged 3.25 goals per game in domestic competitions, including a 4-0 at La Liga leaders Barcelona in the Copa del Rey semifinal second leg. Los Blancos did lose 3-2 at home to Villarreal on Saturday, but their xG of 17 in the Champions League this season is the third-highest of all the quarterfinalists. Only two of the remaining teams have a lower xG than Chelsea (13.7).

The Blues have a squad full of stars but have struggled to gel throughout the season. Lampard has had no time to stamp his mark on the team, and this match could be too soon for him to implement any ideas. Their form is bad and they’re heading to a team that’s scoring for fun right now.

Real Madrid have a mountain to climb in La Liga if they’re to catch Barcelona in the title race. The 14-time European champions will no doubt be putting all their energy into the Champions League. Chelsea will also need to beware of Karim Benzema. The Frenchman’s last 10 Champions League goals have been scored against English clubs.

This should be a game that Madrid wins, but it’s just a question of by how many. They went to Liverpool and won 5-2. Real could have this tie wrapped up on Wednesday and should be good value to cover the two goals against inept opposition. Chelsea haven’t scored in any of their last three matches.

All our other main books are offering the handicap at 0.5 goals, but the best odds are as low as -135. I’m sticking three stars on Madrid to cover by two goals and taking the excellent odds at +190.

Total: Man City vs. Bayern Munich Over 2.5 (-148 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This is without doubt the tie of the round. Guardiola goes up against his former club. Only Napoli (21.7) have more xG than City (19) in this season’s Champions League.

The last time there was a Champions League match at the Etihad Stadium, City scored seven goals, and Erling Haaland had five of them. The Norwegian has 11 goals in his last four outings in all competitions. Haaland has 10 goals in six Champions League outings for City, the joint-fewest games needed for a player to reach double figures in the competition for a specific club.

Bayern know all too well the threat that Haaland poses because he scored five goals in seven matches against them for Borussia Dortmund, though he lost all of those encounters.

Bayern Munich are the only team to have won all of this season’s Champions League matches. They’ve scored 21 goals in eight matches in the competition, averaging 2.6 per game. City have netted on 22 occasions, averaging 2.75 goals per game.

The Over seems to be more than achievable for us, which is why this play has been given the four-star treatment.

Prop: AC Milan vs. Napoli both teams to score: Yes (-115 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐

Napoli have scored the most goals in the Champions League this season (25). Their xG (21.7) is the highest of all the quarterfinalists. They lost 4-0 to Milan last week but bounced back with victory at the weekend and lead the Serie A title race by 16 points.

They’re a club that’s on fire. They’ve won on their last three visits to Milan but never faced them in this competition. The last match between these two at the San Siro ended 2-1 for Napoli. Only Napoli (66) have scored more goals than Milan (48) in Serie A this season.

Milan can beat Napoli, as they proved earlier this month when they went to Naples and beat the Serie A leaders 4-0 in their own house. Napoli are averaging 3.1 goals per game in the Champions League this season, which is fifth-best in a single campaign. Milan will have to get a result at home to keep this tie alive because no team is scoring more than Napoli right now.

The books can see goals from both sides, which is why the prices are so low. Odds are as low as -130 at DraftKings, but PointsBet has it priced at -115. The next best value is at Caesars, priced at -120.

Champions League best bets made 04/10/2023 at 5 a.m. ET.

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