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Lionel Messi of Paris Saint-Germain looks to continue his quality play in Ligue 1 this season.
Lionel Messi of Paris Saint-Germain looks to continue his quality play in Ligue 1 this season. Photo by Mehdi Taamallah/Nurphoto via AFP.

There’s nothing PSG want more than the European title. Having lost the first leg 1-0 at home to Bayern, the French Ligue 1 champions have a mountain to climb in Munich if they’re to make it into the final eight. Read on for our Bayern Munich-PSG pick for the Champions League Round of 16 based on the best Champions League odds.

Although he’ll have limited game time, Bayern welcome back Sadio Mane to their lineup. The Senegal forward has featured in their last two Bundesliga matches, after recovering from a leg injury that forced him out of the World Cup. Neymar’s ankle injury means he will miss the rest of the season, but PSG are unbeaten when Kylian Mbappe and Lionel Messi have partnered together in his absence. The stakes are high in Germany for this mouth-watering match. 

Here is our best Bayern Munich vs. PSG pick (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our Champions League best bets.

Bayern Munich vs. PSG pick

PSG ML (+420 via FanDuel) vs. Bayern Munich ⭐⭐⭐

Since losing to Bayern in the first leg, PSG have won three Ligue 1 matches in a row, scoring 11 goals during that run. Lionel Messi, who last week won the Best FIFA Men’s Player award, has scored in five consecutive Ligue 1 matches for the Parisians for the first time in his career with the French champions. Messi has made the most assists in this season’s Champions League. A goal for Messi will put him alongside Cristiano Ronaldo as the only players to score 50 goals in the Champions League knock-out stages. 

Only Mohamed Salah (eight) has scored more goals in the competition than Kylian Mbappe (seven) so far in the current campaign. Mbappe has scored five goals in PSG’s three league matches since the first leg defeat. On Saturday, he became the club’s record goal scorer. Mbappe has scored in both of his Champions League away games against Bayern Munich, netting three goals in total.

Bayern have won two and lost one in the Bundesliga since their win in Paris. Striker Eric Choupo-Moting has scored in each of those games during that run. The German champions have won 15 of their last 17 home games in the Champions League, although their only defeat during that span was to PSG.

This match has the making of an instant classic. Messi turns 36 in June and knows there won’t be many more opportunities to add another Champions League medal to his impressive haul. His form, alongside Mbappe’s current strike rate, could be enough to see PSG reduce the deficit and advance to the quarterfinals. 

Bayern Munich vs. PSG best odds

FanDuel (+420)


Winning on the road in the knock-out rounds of the Champion League is never easy, which is why there are only two teams priced under +200 to win away in the second leg. PSG has enough quality throughout their team to cause Bayern serious problems on Wednesday. They’re flying in the league and head to Munich with their two superstars in excellent form. 

Since the World Cup break, Bayern have stuttered in the Bundesliga. Borussia Dortmund were nine points behind the German champions when the league paused, and they now find themselves level with Bayern in the title race. I can see Messi and Mbappe turning on the magic on Wednesday, which will be too much for Bayern. 

There’s a little fluctuation between our main sportsbooks. Caesars did have PSG priced at +290 on Monday, but that dropped to +260 on Tuesday morning before ticking back up by Wednesday morning. The Parisians must win to advance. A draw won’t be enough. I’m confident they will do it, but I won’t stick four stars on the play because of the home advantage that Bayern Munich will have. 

Bayern Munich vs. Paris Saint-Germain odds analysis

PSG do need to win to advance, but a 1-0 victory will take this tie into extra-time. If you want extra juice on the play, BetMGM has them priced at +380 to qualify for the next round. The gamble with that is they will have to navigate extra-time and penalties for you to win if they end the 90 minutes with a 1-0 triumph. 

The French champions are handicapped as +0.5-goal underdogs, priced at -105 via FanDuel. DraftKings has the best price for Kylian Mbappe as an anytime goalscorer at +160. Messi is +200 to score in this match, with those odds at DraftKings and PointsBet

Bayern Munich vs. Paris Saint-Germain game info

  • Date: Wednesday, March 8, 3 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS, Paramount+ 
  • Location: Allianz Arena, Munich
  • Weather: 48 degrees, 62% chance of precipitation, 12 mph winds

Bayern Munich-PSG pick made 03/07/2023 at 10 a.m. ET.

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