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Argentina forward Lautaro Martnez controls the ball as we look at our our best bets for the Copa America 2024 quarterfinals match featuring Argentina and Ecuador.
Argentina forward Lautaro Martnez controls the ball from Peru defender Aldo Corzo in the second half during the Copa America group stage at Hard Rock Stadium. Photo by: Nathan Ray Seebeck/USA TODAY Sports.

Argentina and Ecuador get set for the Copa America quarterfinals, and we're offering our top Argentina vs. Ecuador predictions based on the odds from our best soccer betting sites.

Argentina pranced through the group stage with three straight victories, while Ecuador lumbered their way into the quarterfinals with a win, a loss, and a draw. Argentina defeated Ecuador 1-0 in the last two head-to-heads, one of which was a World Cup qualifier in September of last year and the other a pre-tournament friendly at Soldier Field in June. 

Argentina, the giant favorites to advance to the semifinals, have the shortest Copa America odds. Thursday's quarterfinal takes place at NRG Stadium in Houston, with kickoff set for 9 p.m. ET. 

Lionel Messi, who suffered a right groin/abductor injury against Chile, practiced with the team for the duration of Monday's practice. While his status hasn't been confirmed, seeing him train with the squad indicates the diminutive one will suit up for the pivotal contest. 

Argentina vs. Ecuador predictions for Thursday

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Argentina vs. Ecuador score prediction

Argentina 2 vs. Ecuador 0

Argentina are unbeaten in their last eight matches and have won eight of the previous nine competitive matches. Astonishingly, Argentina didn't concede a goal in any of those eight victories.

Clean sheets against Chile, Canada, and Peru in the group stage are more impressive when you look back to their recent results in the CONMEBOL World Cup qualifiers, where they kept five clean sheets in six contests. The only exception came in their 2-0 defeat to Uruguay, one of the world's in-form teams.  

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Ecuador prides themselves on keeping things tight at the back, as demonstrated by conceding just three goals in their last six competitive matches. They kept three straight clean sheets in World Cup qualifiers preceding Copa America. Ecuador didn't concede against Mexico and can blame an early red card for allowing two against Venezuela. 

That said, Argentina have too many weapons and should eventually find the breakthrough. After that, Ecuador may pump too many forward in a desperate attempt to level the affair, providing a platform for Argentina to add an insurance marker. 

The +475 odds will pay a profit of $47.50 on a winning $10 bet. 

Best odds: +475 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 17.39%

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Argentina vs. Ecuador anytime goal scorer prediction

Lautaro Martinez, Argentina

Picking Lautaro Martinez to bulge the old onion bag against Ecuador was easier than choosing between a 28-day aged 10-ounce filet mignon and an instant microwave meal. Despite being introduced off the bench and playing just 31 total minutes against Canada and Chile, Martinez, with four goals, sits atop the Copa America 2024 top goal scorer odds

Martinez is sizzling, more than that filet mignon I can't seem to get out of my noggin.

The 26-year-old is scoring at an outrageous 2.93 goals-per-90-minute clip. That's 1.90 more than second-place Folarin Balogun. Even if Messi returns to the starting lineup, a likely scenario, I expect Martinez to join him in the first 11. 

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Martinez's four goals have come from 2.9 expected goals, showcasing his potency and ruthlessness. The Inter Milan striker, who has nine goals in 13 Copa America contests, loves this competition as much as I enjoy cutting into a perfectly cooked medium-rare steak. 

FanDuel often provides better value on anytime goal scorers than the rest of our best sports betting sites. The +175 odds will pay a profit of $17.50 if Martinez bags his 10th Copa America goal. 

Best odds: +175 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 36.36%

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Argentina vs. Ecuador best bet

Argentina win and Under 3.5 goals

Argentina are the No. 1 ranked team and the defending Copa America and World Cup champions. Even without a fully healthy Messi, they should get past a stubborn and seemingly indefatigable Ecuador side.

Ecuador have been shut out twice in a row by Argentina and don't possess enough offensive nous to trouble the clean-sheet masters. Argentina have scored more than two goals in just one of their previous nine competitive matches. 

There's almost no value in backing Argentina on the moneyline, so I coupled it with the Under 3.5 goals market, which allows a buffer. If you want to optimize the value, go with an Argentina win and Under 2.5 goals, which you can snag at +165. 

The -122 odds will pay a profit of $8.20 on a successful $10 wager. 

Best odds: -122 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 54.95%

Argentina vs. Ecuador odds & game info

Ecuador +750+750+725+750+700
  • When: Thursday, July 4 (9 p.m. ET)
  • Where: NRG Stadium (Houston)
  • How to watch: Fox Sports (U.S.), TSN (Canada)
  • Favorite: Argentina (-209 via bet365)

Argentina-Ecuador predictions made Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET.

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