Bookmakers tip the Republicans to win the House next year while giving them an equal shot to the Democrats tow in the Senate at the same time.
As per (see Sportsbook Review), the Republicans are tipped at -250 odds to win the House in the 2022 Midterm Elections. To win the Senate, the Republicans are tipped at -115 odds, which has them currently tied with the Democrats in political betting markets.
To quantify the odds in terms of betting probability, the -250 political odds imply a 71.4 percent probability for the Republicans to win the House over the Democrats. While the -115 political odds that are applied to both the Republicans and Democrats in the race to the Senate imply a 53.5 % percent probability of winning.
Bovada Sportsbook US Politics Odds
2020 MidTerm Election Odds For the House and Senate
Which party will win the house in the 2022 midterm election?
Which party will control the Senate after the 2022 midterm election?
Republicans Strong Contenders to Take Over House
The odds for the Republicans to take control of the House are stronger than their odds to take control of the Senate right now, but that can change as the elections approach next year.
The Democrats currently control two chambers but by narrow margins. The House is represented by liberals and conservatives with a ratio of 220 to 212. The Senate is comprised of a caucus that includes Democrats and Independents with 50 percent of the chamber, and vice president Kamala Harris has the deciding vote in the event of a tiebreaker.
The fact that the Republicans are tipped advantageously to win the House is of great cause for concern within the Democratic party. Several leading congressional Democrats have gone so far as to suggest the resignation of the party’s leadership in the event of a Republican takeover.
Aside from the odds, history is on the side of the Republicans. In the past, midterm elections have functioned as a quasi-referendum on the party in power. With the Joe Biden Administration heading up the White House, the midterm elections, therefore, are likely to be a referendum of his leaderships.
What Americans will think of Biden’s leadership at the point in time the elections begin remains to be seen. Recent events such as America’s shambolic withdrawal from Afghanistan, the growing migrant crisis at the Mexican border, and the aftermath of the pandemic aren’t likely to help his cause. These are divisive topics and events that have provided bad optics for the Biden Administration, both domestically and internationally, and they could impact the 2022 Midterm Elections.
History favors the opposing party at the Midterm Elections. There have been 40 midterm elections since 1860 with the incumbent president’s party – the party in charge of the nation – emerging from 37 of those with a reduced share of the seats in the House of Representatives than it had to go in. Hence, the Republican’s overwhelming favor in House Midterm betting markets.
Historical trends also point to Senate Midterm Elections going against the presidential party, although not quite as decisively as the House.
Whether historical trends will prove to be true in 2022 remains to be seen. History says Republicans are likely to win, but Democrats could flip the script in the next 12 months. All in all, the Democrats have their work cut out if they hope to defy history and the political odds.