There has been no let-up in the constant barrage of US Election Betting news. It seems like a decade ago that Bob Woodward’s scathing representation on the state of the White House came out and the New York Times story about Donald Trump’s tax situation rocked the Campaign landscape – it was only a week ago!
The Friday early-morning bombshell of Donald Trump’s positive COVID test may be the biggest news yet from this campaign but has yet to be reflected in the Election Polls. But his Election Betting Odds have certainly slid since this time last week. Donald Trump’s Debate performance has seriously impacted Trump’s chances in November and his positive coronavirus test may have just castrated a message he has been sending for months.
With Trump’s “show of strength” joyride around Walter Reed on Sunday and his triumphant made-for-TV return to the White House Monday, Trump’s odds could climb again – or they could be viewed as a dangerous stunt that could see his chances slip further. “Trump Beat COVID” commemorative coins are already available on his Campaign website.
Let’s take a deeper dive into all of the happenings.
Trump Continues Free-Fall
Election Polling has finally caught up to reflect the Debate-fallout. And it isn’t good for the President. NBC is out with a new Poll showing Joe Biden almost doubling his lead Nationally. It has Biden at 53% and Trump at 39% – a 14-point lead that seems nearly insurmountable with a month to go. For what it is worth, Hillary Clinton led Trump by about the same amount at this time in 2016.
The Election Odds have followed suit although some halted betting this past weekend while Donald Trump was hospitalized. On September 29, the day of the Debate, Bovada had Biden a -120 favorite and Donald Trump at EVEN-Odds. The day after the Debate saw Biden shortening his Odds to -140 with Trump lengthening at +120. Today, Biden is now a -175 favorite and Trump is a +145 underdog.
BetOnline has Biden a nearly 2-1 favorite. He sits at -180 and Trump is at +150.
These are the worst Odds that Donald Trump has seen since becoming the Republican nominee.
Some Other Possible Reasons for the Slide (if You Believe Polls!)
Presidential Debates traditionally didn’t do a whole lot to sway US Election Odds and Polls – but that was before the Donald Trump era. The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll gaged Presidential temperament. Fifty-eight percent of voters say Joe Biden has the better temperament, according to the poll, while just 26 percent pick Trump – an astounding 32% difference.
That same poll asked whether voters what the Senate should do about the Supreme Court nomination, that is now in danger of going unconfirmed before the Election, thanks to the COVID outbreak at the White House. 50% said to wait until after the Election, 38% said vote before the election. 35% support Amy Coney Barrett while 34% oppose and 30% don’t know. Translation – there is a political risk in the quick advancement of a new Justice – one that may not pay off for the President.
CNN is out with their own post-Debate/pre-Trump COVID test poll which sees a 16-point difference with Biden leading Trump 57%-41%. Likely voters prefer Biden over Trump on the coronavirus outbreak (59% prefer Biden, 38% Trump), health care (59% to 39%), racial inequality in America (62% to 36%), nominations to the Supreme Court (57% to 41%) and crime and safety (55% to 43%). Even the economy (50% Biden, 48% Trump), is in the Challengers favor at this point.
There aren’t nearly the prop bets available than we saw at this time last week when the two Candidates were prepping for the first Debate. The Popular Vote still has the Democrats -500 and the Republicans a heavy +330 dog and Senate Control now leaning the Democrats way, according to Bovada. Right now, Democrats are a slight -125 favorite to gain Senate control while the Republicans are a -105 underdog according to Bovada.
According to Bovada, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is now the +300 co-favorite to be the Democratic Candidate in 2024 along with Joe Biden. Kamala Harris is a close third at +350 odds, Elizabeth Warren is +800 and Bernie Sanders and Michelle Obama are next at +1000.