It has been another hugely consequential week in the world of US Political Betting but for once, the news cycle is not being dominated by controversy created by the President of the United States.
Instead the untimely death of legend Ruth Bader Ginsburg at age 87 has shifted the negative attention onto Republican Senators who just four years ago refused to confirm Barack Obama’s Supreme Court nominee, citing the proximity to the election for the refusal – Obama’s nomination came eight months from the Election – there are 42 days until this one. More on that to come on that.
Donald Trump and Joe Biden will continue to be extremely visible this week with campaign stops all over the country. Consider it an appetizer for the first Presidential Debate that comes our way one week from now.
It all adds up to another crazy week ahead with fluctuations in the Election Polls and the US Election Odds. Let’s break it down.
Trump Ticks Down
Donald Trump has to be happy now that the focus has shifted off the coronavirus, his incendiary remarks toward the military and the potentially damaging revelations in the Bob Woodward book “Rage” – at least for the time being.
Conservatives have long pointed toward Trump’s ability to reshape the Courts as the main reason for their unwavering support for the current President. The ability to name a new Justice following the death of RBG is being viewed as a chance to rally the Conservative base – something desperately needed according to the Polls and US Election Betting Odds.
With the Supreme Court in particular, having 6 GOP-appointees and 3 Democrat-appointees certainly gives the GOP an advantage in shaping the country the way they see fit. Also, the Supreme Court will be heavily counted upon if there is a contested US Betting Election in November – and that seems likely.
But the ever-changing US Betting Odds from Bovada shows Trump’s chances have grown longer even since the death of RBG. Trump’s odds, as of today are the longest they’ve been in over a month.
Last week at this time, Bovada had Trump as a slight -105 underdog with Biden the -115 favorite. On Friday, the day of RBG’s death, his odds slipped to +110 according to Bovada while Biden was -130. Those odds are the same today.
The Polls and US Election Betting Odds have been in lock-step the last couple of weeks in particular. Right now, RealClearPolitics, which averages Polls across the nation has Joe Biden at 49.3% – 6.2 percentage points clear of Donald Trump. Keep in mind that the magic number in US Politics seems to be 50%.
Rallies Give Way to Debates
Donald Trump has been a rally-master since bursting onto the scene. His need to get out in front of a packed, largely maskless crowd has brought back an energy and has allowed him to spread his messages again, mostly unchallenged.
But the cheering crowds and intensely supportive venues will mean nothing if Donald Trump can’t get it done at the first Presidential Debate that happens a week from now. Pollsters and oddsmakers have September 29 circled on their calendars in anticipation of that event.
Trump will have to defend policy, present new ones and take on immediate blowback from the career politician with a ton of ammo. Joe Biden will just likely have to stay coherent.
A Few “Supreme” Props to Start off the Week
Speculation will be running rampant until Donald Trump officially names his nominee to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg. The only thing we know is that the President has said a woman will be nominated.
BetOnline is all over that action. Right now, Amy Coney Barrett is the favorite at -250, Barbara Lagoa is next at +125, Joan Larsen is at +1200 and Allison Rushing is the fourth betting favorite at +1500. Ted Cruz and Tom Cotton make the list as well but they are further down.
BetOnline also gives you a chance to bet on whether or not the Supreme Court Justice Vote will happen by Election Day. Right now, “No” is at -150 and “Yes” is at +110.