There are just two short weeks to go before arguably the most consequential US Election in a generation. Expect a heavy dose of both candidates over the next 14 days as they try to woo the increasingly shrinking number of voters that have yet to make up their minds.
Donald Trump is following a familiar path toward Election Betting Day as he simply tries to outwork his opponent. He only has one speed. Despite a COVID-19 diagnosis just a few short weeks ago, the incumbent President is scheduling multiple rallies every day from here on in and taking a familiar aggressive tone toward his opponents and even a few in his own orbit.
It remains to be seen just how much the increased exposure will have on the electorate down the stretch. Approximately 28 million, or 16%-17% of the expected voter total for this year’s Election have already cast their votes. Those figures represent unprecedented numbers for these unprecedented times.
The phrase Trump rally means a couple of different things this week as we look toward his stretch-drive strategy and also his standing in the election betting odds.
Firstly, there are his constant campaign stops, or rallies that have included maskless, not-socially distanced crowds hinging on the President’s every word, whether it be attacks of Joe and Hunter Biden, Democratic Senators or even Dr. Fauci. They have worked to get out his message in the past and he hopes they will again.
Secondly, Trump’s election betting odds have seen a bit of a rally since the end of last week. According to Bovada, Donald Trump’s odds have hit a three-week high of +125 – from +155 October 16 and +170 October 14. Joe Biden’s odds on the other hand have slipped from -200 on October 14 to a current -160. BetOnline has Joe Biden the -170 favorite and Trump +150 underdog.
It is difficult to determine whether or not Trump’s live rallies have contributed to his political odds rally. It could be that his constant campaign chatter is working to get out the vote or it could simply reflect some rumored panic the incumbent President is feeling after seeing poll-after-poll with him trailing nationally by double-digits two weeks out from the Election. Whatever Trump is doing or not doing however has given a bit of a boost lately.
Biden Running Out the Clock
Joe Biden appears to be in a good spot heading into the final two weeks of the Election Campaign. He is saying all the right things despite holding what seems like a comfortable lead in both the National and swing state polling. If 2016 taught us one thing however, it’s that anything can and probably will happen during a US Election Season.
Biden is winning the fundraising battle, the messaging battle, the polling battle, and somehow he even won the ratings battle of the town-hall duel between him and Trump on Thursday night. Absent an “October Surprise”, like the Hunter Biden laptop story that isn’t going away, Biden seems to be on a path toward victory. Hence his more muted campaign schedule for this week at least.
Belmont University in Nashville Tennessee will be the scene of the second and final debate Thursday night and oddsmakers will be busy dreaming up prop bets for the big night. While Donald Trump seems to be foregoing rigorous Debate prep in favor of talking to raucous rally crowds, Joe Biden has largely stepped out of the spotlight, getting ready for any inevitability of the final head-to-head matchup with the President.
NBC News’ Kristen Welker will do her best to “moderate” but not many are expecting a civil, substantive discussion. She will be aided however by the Debate Commission’s decision Monday to mute the candidates’ mics when it is not their turn to speak.
It used to be that debates didn’t do a whole lot to sway voters but we all saw a major slide for the President in the US Election Polls and Odds in the aftermath of Debate 1. Will it happen again? Stay tuned.