US Elections: Electoral College Odds Breakdown – Republicans vs. Democrats

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US Elections: Electoral College Odds Breakdown – Republicans vs. Democrats
President Donald Trump. Doug Mills-Pool/Getty Images/AFP

Another Trump-backed candidate loses their GOP primary. Is this a worrisome sign for the MAGA president? Or not?

Colorado served up the latest occasion of a Trump-endorsed candidate falling to the wayside, after the North Carolina GOP congressional primary saw 24-year-old political upstart Madison Cawthorn defeat Lydia Bennett.

Five-term Republican congressman Scott Tipton, who received a glowing endorsement from president Donald Trump via twitter as “a great supporter of the #MAGA Agenda!,” was upset by his far-right challenger Lauren Boebert in the Colorado GOP primary. A relative newcomer to the political stage but who is now, on account of her smashing victory, headed into the state’s general election.

Boebert, a gun-rights activist and restaurant owner, upset Tipton seemingly out of nowhere and, at the same time, may have shifted the contours of the general election in the district. Tipton was by and large the political odds-on favourite ahead of the GOP primary. Thus, few could have predicted the defeat. 

The NRCC has given its support to Boebert, congratulating her in a statement. “Lauren won her primary fair and square and has our support.” Moreover, the NRCC added, “With Lauren’s win, we now have more female nominees than at any other point in the history of the Republican Party and that is a point that should be celebrated.”

Boebert will now face Democrat Diane Mitsch Bush in the November general elections. Bush lost to Tipton in 2018 by 8 points. However, the best sportsbooks color Colorado (9 electoral college votes) blue, with the Democrats tipped at a whopping -900 to win the electoral college vote. Republicans are priced at +600 to paint the state red.

BetOnline Sportsbook 2020 US Elections Odds Update

Although a whole slew of top-rated sportsbooks serve up precise, individual political odds for candidates in the US presidential race, the electoral college vote – and not the popular vote – essentially determines the US presidency, when all is said and done. It’s not a popularity contest, as such. It’s a race to win states over instead. That’s why the results of the primary races are so very intriguing. Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden may be the current favorite to become the 46th president of the United States, with politics odds ranging from -170 to -190, depending on your preferred choice of best-rated sportsbook.

At the same time, president Donald Trump is the so-called “underdog” in the race, with odds ranging from +120 to +160. 

Winning the keys to the White House however is an intricate process involving the electoral college vote. And that in itself opens various angles for political betting enthusiasts to capitalise on.

BetOnline breaks down the map of America by state, serving up odds that measure the advantage or disadvantage of Democrats and Republicans within said state. 

In some instances, one or the other party is heavily favored; thereby implying a state is inherently either blue or red. In other instances, the odds are as tight as an accountant’s fist; thereby, implying party-lines are blurred within said state. In these unique cases, the state is deemed a potential swing-state — a marker denoted by the color purple.

As it stands, with just under four months before the general elections get underway on November 3, sportsbooks are tipping a victory for the Democrats in more ways than one. Over and above Biden’s favorable odds, the Democratic party is tipped at -200 at BetOnline to ascend to power at the expense of the Republicans. 

BetOnline Sportsbook Party Nominee Odds

  • Republican Nominee +170
  • Democrat Nominee -200

Moreover, while the Democrats appear to have the edge in 26 states and in the District of Columbia, compared to 24 states for the Republicans, they appear to be leading in states where there are more electoral college votes up for grabs. It’s fair to say, if the elections really go the way of the 2020 US Election odds, Democrats are projected to crush the Republicans with a staggering 331 electoral college votes. (For your convenience, we list the states below according to the favorites.)

Betting the Electoral College Vote

There are 538 electoral college votes up for grabs, and at least 270 electoral college votes are required to win the election. In 2016, Donald Trump won the electoral college vote with 306 pledged votes to Hillary Clinton’s 232 pledged votes.

Republicans Favored States By the Odds at BetOnline

  1. Alabama -2500 (9 votes)
  2. Alaska -700    (3 votes)
  3. Arkansas -900  (6 votes)
  4. Georgia -140  (16 votes)
  5. Idaho -3300 (4 votes)
  6. Indiana -800 (11 votes)
  7. Iowa -145 (6 votes)
  8. Kansas -1000 (6 votes)
  9. Kentucky -1200 (8 votes)
  10. Louisiana -1200 (8 votes)
  11. Mississippi -2000 (6 votes)
  12. Missouri -550 (10 votes)
  13. Montana -700 (3 votes)
  14. Nebraska -2000 (5 votes)
  15. North Dakota -2000 (3 votes)
  16. Ohio -165 (18 votes)
  17. Oklahoma -2000 (7 votes)
  18. South Carolina -800 (9 votes)
  19. South Dakota -1400 (3 votes)
  20. Tennessee -1400 (11 votes)
  21. Texas -225 (38 votes)
  22. Utah -600 (6 votes)
  23. West Virginia -1400 (5 votes)
  24. Wyoming -2500 (3 votes)

*Total value of electoral college vote: 204

**Swing states in bold

Trump repeating his stunning 2016 victory is clearly being deemed unlikely because, if the odds are anything to go by, bookmakers aren’t projecting a rosy picture for Trump – at least, not at the moment. By the political odds, Trump is projected to clinch merely 204 electoral college votes, which would be a bruising defeat, not unlike the defeat Mitt Romney endured in 2012 when he lost the electoral college vote 206 to 332 for Barak Obama.

Indeed, Joe Biden appears to be on similar trajectory to Obama, whom he served as vice president for two terms.

States Favored To Go Democrat in Electoral Vote

  1. Arizona -170 (11 votes)
  2. California -2000 (55 votes)
  3. Colorado -900 (9 votes)
  4. Connecticut -1200 (7 votes)
  5. Delaware -1100 (3 votes)
  6. District of Columbia (3 votes)
  7. Florida -150 (29 votes)
  8. Hawaii -2500 (4 votes)
  9. Illinois -2000 (20 votes)
  10. Maine -450 (4 votes)
  11. Maryland -1400 (10 votes)
  12. Massachusetts -2000 (11 votes)
  13. Michigan -400 (16 votes)
  14. Minnesota -500 (10 votes)
  15. Nevada -550 (6 votes)
  16. New Hampshire -350 (4 votes)
  17. New Jersey -1000 (14 votes)
  18. New Mexico -610 (5 votes)
  19. New York -2000 (29 votes)
  20. North Carolina -130 (15 votes)
  21. Oregon -1200 (7 votes)
  22. Pennsylvania -250 (20 votes)
  23. Rhode Island -1000 (4 votes)
  24. Vermont -2000 (3 votes)
  25. Virginia -750 (13 votes)
  26. Washington -1400 (12 votes)
  27. Wisconsin -225 (10 votes)

*Total value of electoral college vote: 334

**Swing states in bold

Political Odds, Swing States and the Vote

In reality, politics odds merely reflect a loose interpretation of a specific point in time, often underscored by overriding opinions revealed in national polls and political analysts alike. If political betting trends from the 2012 and 2016 elections spill forward into the 2020 US Elections, swing states will likely determine the result and it’s anybody’s guess which way those votes will line up. 

The 2020 swing states appear to be Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, Texas, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and to a lesser extent Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada and New Hampshire. Between these states, many electoral college votes are up for grabs; that said, Florida (29), Georgia (16), Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20), Texas (38) and Wisconsin (10) constitute the “Big Six” with a lion’s ransom of 129 electoral college votes combined. 

On November 3, the red-white-and-blue divides at the state level along red-versus-blue demarcation lines. 

Colorado Electoral College Odds

  • Republican to Win Colorado +600                                                                           
  • Democrat to Win Colorado -900