D-Day is almost upon us! Decision day for one of the most compelling races in US political history is less than a week away, and as president Donald Trump gets set to face his challenger former vice-president Joe Biden on November 3, the betting on the 2020 US Elections is heating up.
To say it has been an unprecedented presidential race is an understatement. It’s the understatement to end all understatements. Full stop. An extraordinary global pandemic, the likes of which hasn’t been seen in 100 years, has tipped the world off its axis and reaped havoc around the world socially, economically and politically.
To the election cycle, the pandemic has been seminal and transformational, altering the course of the campaign trail from its usual in-person, cross-country trek to the virtual realm, and concentrating the battleground to key issues of social injustice, racial inequality, socio-economic imbalance and reform, and public health.
Throughout the 2020 election cycle, various national polling outlets have been taking the temperature of the public’s opinions, and according to the established cognoscenti, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden leads over Donald Trump.
However, according to multiple online sportsbooks, the race is distinctly tighter than what some of the polls would suggest, and consequently, the political betting odds are much closer, meaning it’s a right tossup for political betting picks.
Indeed, the way the market is cast, a repeat of 2016 isn’t an unreasonable probability.
2020 US Elections on Course to be Record-Breaking
According to many of the best online sportsbooks, the 2020 US presidential election is on course to be the biggest single event in betting history. Outperforming the 2016 even, which was record-breaking at the time.
Across the political odds board, Joe Biden is tipped as the betting fave with odds that give him an above 50% probability of winning. However, the odds vary from sportsbook to sportsbook. For instance, Bovada tips Biden on -175 to win the keys to the White House on November 3, while Intertops tips Biden on -200 and BetOnline tips Biden on -210. Trump, meanwhile, is priced at +145 with Bovada to win a second-term in office, and at +160 with Intertops and +175 with BetOnline. In betting probability, the odds reflect around a 40% shot.
Trump Closing the Gap
Although polls are showing Biden in the lead, the advantage that he’s enjoyed steadily during the course of the last few months over Trump has noticeably dwindled in recent weeks. RealClearPolitics showed the “America First” president closing the gap to merely 6 percentage points in its latest national serving. That’s down from 8.5 points earlier in October, a number that was being reported by several polling outlets, such as FiveThirtyEight and others.
The one polling outlet credited with being the only national poll to correctly predicted a Trump victory in the 2016 election is once again proving to be an outlier by submitting national polling assessments that would be more conducive to the tighter race being pitched with the several sportsbooks taking action on the 2020 US Elections.
In 2016, the Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) released a poll just before the election that found Trump was ahead of Hillary Clinton by 1.6 points. Tale told Trump lost the popular vote by 2.1 points but won the electoral college vote 304-227.
IBD’s tracking poll, which is released with daily updates, showed for example on October 20 that Joe Biden had a lead over Donald Trump that amounted to a paltry 2.3 percentage points – then Biden was at 48.1 percent and Trump at 45.8 percent.
The poll tracked interesting political betting trends – a decreasing level of support for Biden that coincided with an increasing level of support for Trump since October 12. Explaining the reason for the dramatic turn of events at the time by juxtaposing levels of support for each candidate within their respective party and party supporters. Mainly Trump’s surge appeared to be benefitting from stronger support (94%) among Republicans than Biden is from Democrats (90%).
IBD polls are released daily and they reflect a survey of 800-1000 likely voters conducted over a period of five days. Thus, the results of the poll will fluctuate accordingly. For example, on October 29, IBD revealed Biden to have jumped back up to a 4.6-points lead over Trump – Biden’s 50.5% to Trump’s 45.4%.
2020 US Elections Betting Summary Whichever way one slices the 2020 US Elections for their political picks, it’s clear that it’s a close race down the home stretch, despite Biden widening his lead again over Trump. And as both candidates continue to ramp up their campaigning efforts, its bound to be even more competitive all the way to the last second.