Now that President Donald Trump is a considerable underdog does the incumbent strike an attractive pose for bettors?
Trump’s Odds at a New Low
The betting is heating up in 2020 US Elections markets but President Donald Trump sees his odds to win the general elections in November drift further across sports betting platforms. With the July 4th long weekend just around the corner, Trump’s re-election prospects by the odds have never looked grimmer, falling to a new low.
Some of the best sportsbooks, like BetOnline Sportsbook, have Trump trading on a +150 price tag – his heftiest odds to win the race to the White House yet this year. Bookmaker Sportsbook takes it a negotiable step further by pricing Trump on +153 odds, while Jazz Sportsbook goes as far as tipping Trump on +165 underdog odds. By contrast, Bovada Sportsbook sets up Trump on a more modest price of +120.
U.S. Politics Odds to Win the Presidential Election
- Joe Biden -180
- Donald Trump +150
- Mike Pence +3300
- Hillary Clinton +4000
- Michelle Obama +10000
- Nikki Haley +10000
- Elizabeth Warren +15000
- Mark Cuban +20000
Biden Surfing a Wave of National Momentum
On the flipside, presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is riding roughshod over the field at a whopping -180 price tag with BetOnline Sportsbook, while Jazz Sportsbook takes it up a notch to -185 – the most favorable odds yet on Biden during the election cycle. JustBet serves up Biden as the -163 favorite in 2020 US Elections markets, and Bovada Sportsbook offers up Biden on the most conservative note of the lot, at -140 odds.
Biden recently surged in national polls to open up his biggest lead over Donald Trump in public opinion. And, clearly, bookmakers are taking stock.
The New York Times Upshot/Siena College Poll, released this week, showed Biden pulling ahead of Trump by 14% points nationally (50% to 36%); and it also revealed Biden has made inroads in various swing states and key battleground states, including Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin where his lead ranges from 6 to 11 percentage points.
Overall, Biden’s edge with the NY Times/Siena poll is attributed to favorable opinion largely with women and non-white voters but he also is viewed favorably with various categories of male voters (middle-aged to older).
It wasn’t all doom and gloom for Trump however, who still polled well in his core support group, comprised of white, non-college educated voters. Additionally, Trump largely did better than Biden in the poll when the economy was the main topic.
A national survey by Pew Research Centre, conducted between June 16-22 among 4,708 adults, including 3,577 registered voters, determined contrasting outlooks among voters on Trump’s presidency as compared to Biden’s potential presidency. Intriguingly, 28% of voters said Biden would be a good or great president compared to 37% that thought Trump was a good or great president. However, at the same time, 43% said Biden would be a poor or terrible president compared to 53% that said Trump was a poor or terrible president.
Trump scored high on being an “energetic” president (56%) and a “courageous” president (46%) – two traits that were revealed to be a weakness of Biden. Only 40% of voters dubbed Biden as energetic and 45% said he was courageous, albeit only 15% said that trait suited Biden “very well” compared to the 28% that deemed it suited Trump “very well.”
Does Backing Donald Trump offer value?
In other words: Is Trump the value bet now that he’s trading on plus money? Well, yes and no. And it largely depends on the perception of value.
If value is determined in the context of “winning” a bet, short of a crystal ball it’s impossible to say whether Trump – or Biden for that matter – is the value bet to win the 2020 US elections.
However, if value is determined in the context of ‘return on investment’, – i.e. bang for your buck – then the answer quite simply is, yes. Who doesn’t appreciate an underdog bet? Especially one that essentially has a 50-50 chance of winning a two-horse race, despite the odds.
It’s fair to say, Biden’s recent surge – only last month did the tables turn wholeheartedly in his favor – is down to Trump’s missteps rather than on Biden’s political merit, which makes it ambiguous. Moreover, whether the political betting bonhomie will last and for how long is uncertain; and probably not until Biden makes his VP selection known and engages in direct political battle with Trump, will a clearer indication be had of how the two candidates really stack up against each other for political picks.
As such, for those that fancy backing Trump now in order to bank on his underdog status, there is certainly political betting value on the table with several top-rated sportsbooks that is worth looking over closely. It’s something of a “been there, done that” scenario… After all, Trump already stunned the punditocracy once, four years ago when he muscled his way into the White House against the odds by winning the electoral college vote, it follows that he could do so again. Who’s to say, unequivocally, that he won’t do it again?