Stretch Drive in the US Election Campaign

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Stretch Drive in the US Election Campaign
US President Donald Trump (L), Democratic Presidential candidate former US Vice President Joe Biden and moderator, NBC News anchor, Kristen Welker (C) participate in the final presidential debate. Photo by Chip Somodevilla / POOL / AFP

We can see the light at the end of the 2020 US Election Betting tunnel. Last night’s Final Debate signaled the last head-to-head meeting between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden and what a night it was! Most judged the Debate a draw, which many see as a loss for Donald Trump, as he needed to make up a ton of ground in both the Election Polls and Election Odds.

Nearly 50 million voters have already cast their ballot, which represents nearly one-third of the expected Election turnout. To put that in perspective, 138.8 million Americans voted in 2016. What that means is the final 10 days of the Campaign will see the Candidates fighting for an increasingly shrinking electorate.

For Donald Trump, it will be more aggressive attacks on everything from Hunter Biden to “60 Minutes” to the “Radical Left” to Dr. Fauci and the integrity of the election itself. For Joe Biden, it will more “running out the clock” and avoiding any race-changing mistakes.

It’s a good time to take a look at the post-Debate Betting Odds, 10-days out from the most consequential vote in a generation, and some of the polls that give us a peek into what voters are thinking ahead of their trip to the polls. Let’s start with some key polling data.

The Polls

The post-Debate US Election Betting Polls obviously don’t reflect the happenings from last night. But a peek at the trends show that Joe Biden has maintained a decent lead with less than two weeks to go.

The National polling average has Joe Biden about 8% better than Donald Trump, but perhaps more importantly, the Democratic Candidate is over the magical 50% barrier (50.7%) where he has been for weeks. A glance back four years reveals that Hillary Clinton was about 5.6% better than Trump at this time in the cycle, but sitting at about 45%.

A look at the Battleground States is even more revealing:

  • In Michigan, Biden has an average 7% lead.
  • In Pennsylvania Biden’s lead is an average of 5.3%.
  • At Wisconsin, the Democratic Challenger holds an average 6.6% polling lead.
  • Florida has Biden up an average of 2.1%.
  • Arizona has the Dems up an average of 3.2%.
  • In North Carolina, Biden holds a slim but still eye-opening 1.8% polling advantage over Trump.
  • Georgia has Biden up in the polls by an average of 1.2%.
  • In Iowa, Biden holds a 0.8% lead.

Fox News Polls even seem aligned with the polling averages we are seeing across the country. Translation – the path to victory for Donald Trump is shrinking by the day. He has to hope that last night’s debate provides a polling bump or that another Comey-type October surprise comes his way.

US President Donald Trump (L) Democratic Presidential candidate and former US Vice President Joe Biden participate in the final presidential debate. Photo by Morry GASH / POOL / AFP

The Odds

Well, those that were hoping that Donald Trump could maintain his early-week Odds momentum will be disappointed this morning after waking up and seeing that Joe Biden is on the rise again.

To begin the week, Trump had made up some ground. According to Bovada, he reached a 6-week high at +125 on Tuesday but has begun to slide back. He is at +135 today. Joe Biden on the other hand, stretched out from -160 Monday to a -185 favorite the morning after the Debate.

BetOnline this morning has Joe Biden a 2-1 favorite to win the Presidency on November 3rd and Trump a +175 underdog.

It all indicates that Joe Biden seems to have weathered the Trump campaign criticism of staying out of sight and preparing for the Debate instead of making frequent rally-stops around the country. The Election Odds are also an indication that the Hunter Biden “laptop-gate” just isn’t resonating with the average voter, nor the oddsmakers.

Biden -185
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Trump+175
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Voters fill out their ballots as they vote. Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images/AFP

Weekly Peek at the Props with BetOnline

This week’s US Election Betting props are heavy on voter turnout which is turning out to be a big story in the election landscape. There are other fun opportunities as well, regarding the control of the U.S. Senate and Trump repeating the outcome of each state of the past election. BetOnline is taking action on:

Voter Turnout in the U.S Presidential Election

The percentage of Americans that will turn out and vote

Majority Control of the U.S. Senate

Will Trump lose every state he lost in 2016?

Will Trump win every state he won in 2016?