President Trump Now Underdog for November Election

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President Trump Now Underdog for November Election
US President Donald Trump (Photo by Brendan Smialowski / AFP)

The sportsbooks have updated their politics betting odds in the wake of the protests that have raged across the United States.

President Donald Trump is now the clear underdog in his battle to be reelected in November following a weak of upheaval across the country. He spent several months as the odds-on favorite to secure a second term, but that has all changed following a tumultuous week. Trump has drawn a fierce backlash for his response to the crisis that has engulfed the United States, and sportsbooks now make challenger Joe Biden the favorite to topple him in November.

The last US president to fail in his bid to secure a second term was George H. W. Bush back in 1992. Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama all achieved reelection, despite facing various setbacks, so it is easy to see why President Trump was the favorite to emerge triumphant in November. However, the events of the past week could derail his bid for a second term.

“When the looting starts, the shooting starts,” Tweeted the president after protests in Minnesota descended into riots and looting. The country is in uproar after George Floyd died in police custody – arresting officer Derek Chauvin was later fired and charged with murder – and many commentators accused President Trump of fanning the flames by threatening violence against the people of America.

US President Donald Trump listens during the daily briefing on the novel coronavirus, COVID-19, at the White House. Eric BARADAT / AFP

A Shifting Political Landscape

The president drew further criticism after a visit to a church in Washington DC. Police used tear gas to clear people that were protesting peacefully outside the church in order to make way for President Trump’s staged photo-op, sparking another backlash. He has mainly been holed up in a bunker underneath the White House as the protests spread across Washington DC, but he has continued to take a tough stance against protestors while clashing with governors and political rivals. Even fellow Republicans have started to turn against the president.

He has already seen off an impeachment bid, and he is remarkably adept at brushing off criticism, but the twin crises facing the nation – the riots and a coronavirus pandemic that has killed around 110,000 Americans – could finally open the door for Biden to seize the initiative in the presidential election battle. Online betting sites have responded by significantly shifting their odds on this politics futures market.

Biden is now the -130 favorite with BetOnline to prevail at the election, while Trump has drifted out to +100. 5Dimes makes Biden the -115 favorite, while Trump is priced at -105. Intertops has -105 on Biden and +100 on Trump. The big European books such as Bet365, William Hill, Ladbrokes, and 888 Sport all agree with that assessment, as they have Biden as the odds-on favorite and Trump priced between +105 and +110. Bovada is the only outlier, as it still makes Trump the -115 favorite and Biden the +105 underdog.

A number of political prop betting markets have also been updated this week. 5Dimes is offering +110 on the Democrats controlling the House and the Senate after the election, and -150 on any other balance of power. You can find +220 on President Trump winning the popular vote. BetOnline has +115 on the president to lose both the Electoral College and the popular vote. In 2016, he lost the popular vote but stormed to victory in the Electoral College, and you might be tempted by the +210 on that outcome again in 2020. BetOnline also has +225 on President Trump winning the Electoral College and the popular vote, and +1600 on him winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College.