No Such Thing As a Typical Week in US Election Betting

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No Such Thing As a Typical Week in US Election Betting
Trump and Biden will have their first presidential debate on September 29, 2020. Photos by JIM WATSON and Brendan Smialowski / AFP

If you are a person that craves some normality, some consistency, and even an inkling of what is about to come in the near or distant future, 2020 definitely hasn’t been your year. As far as the US Election Betting season goes, there has been no shortage of twists and turns for pollsters, oddsmakers, and the voting public to chew on any given day.

The end of this week greets the US with yet more social unrest, more fallout from Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s replacement saga, and even some news on the Joe/Hunter Biden Senate Burisma report.

About the only thing that has remained constant the last couple of weeks in the US Election Betting scene are the polls and the Election Betting Odds. Donald Trump finds himself trailing in both as he did just four years ago… and we all know what happened.

Trump Doing Himself No Favors?

Bovada’s US Election Betting odds have remained largely unchanged since September 18. Joe Biden continues to be the Betting Favorite at -130 and Trump has remained a +110 underdog.

Trump has been on a campaign-rally tear the last couple of weeks – something that most thought would be helping him. But questions about whether or not he would peacefully transfer power should he lose went unanswered, an unwillingness to address the Breonna Taylor charges will likely follow him into the weekend, and constant downplaying of the coronavirus death toll that surpassed 200,000, aren’t doing him any favors.

The result is a two-month low for Donald Trump in the Polls and the Betting Odds. Next week, he will at least have the first Presidential Debate that has the potential to take the focus off the numerous issues plaguing his campaign six weeks out from the Election.

It will be a must-see TV event in Cleveland on Tuesday when Fox News’ Chris Wallace moderates the first of three showdowns between the Candidates. Biden is said to be in major prep-mode already, with Trump… at rallies, not seemingly worried about Joe Biden.

Some Swing State Polling and Odds

Some new polling came out on Thursday night and they aren’t great for the Incumbent or the Republican Party. FOX News had Joe Biden with a 52%-41% lead in Nevada, a 51%-44% lead in Pennsylvania, and a 50%-45% lead in the seemingly untouchable Ohio. CBS has Biden out front 45%-42% in Iowa, has a 45%-45% dead-heat in Republican stronghold Georgia, and has Trump ahead by just 3 in reliable Florida 46%-43%.

BetOnline’s Election Betting Odds for those states seem to reflect most of the findings in the new polling – they aren’t exactly flattering for the President either. In Nevada, oddsmakers favor Biden -300 over Trump +190. In Pennsylvania, Biden -160 is starting to stretch his lead over Trump +130, although in Ohio, Trump -215 is still favored over Biden +175.

BetOnline still has Trump -260 favored over Biden +200 in Iowa and Trump the overwhelming -300 favorite in Georgia over Biden +240. Florida is a different story however with Biden the slightest -120 favorite over Trump -110.

Weekly Peek at the Props

This week, with the passing of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, a new collection of Betting props has surfaced, and a few old ones have come a lot more interesting. Let’s start with the latter, specifically some of the Senate Race Betting Odds that have fluctuated with the news that Republican Senators have given the green light to Donald Trump’s fast-tracking of a new Supreme Court Justice.

Good old Lindsey Graham, Trump super-loyalist and the one that swore on his word that he wouldn’t vote to confirm a Supreme Court Justice in an election year, is currently in a dead-heat in the South Carolina Senate race with Jaime Harrison, at least according to Polls out of the state. BetOnline still has Graham as the overwhelming -700 favorite with Harrison as the +400 underdog. Clearly, the odds haven’t caught up to the polling just yet.

In Arizona, where Republican Martha McSally is tethered to Trump, the Democratic challenger Mark Kelly is currently listed as a -350 favorite while McSally is a +225 dog. Polling out of the state shows that McSally’s support of confirming a Supreme Court judge before the Election is further hurting her chances.

Republican Corey Gardner is a +425 underdog in Colorado with Democrat John Hickenlooper the -800 favorite. In Maine, Republican Senator Susan Collins is now a +225 underdog to Sara Gideon -350. Collins hopes her rare opposition to Trump on the Supreme Court issue will boost her in the polls.

As for the Supreme Court nominee, BetOnline still has Amy Coney Barrett the -250 favorite, with Barbara Lagoa at +125 to become the next Supreme Court nominee. BetOnline also has odds for when will the Supreme Court Justice vote happen.

  • Will the Supreme Court Justice vote happen by Election Day?
    BetOnline is +200 Yes and -300 No
  • Will the Supreme Court Justice vote happen by Inauguration Day?
    BetOnline is +110 Yes and -150 No

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