The Democrats are heavy favorites in the election odds to prevail yet again in New York this year.
New Yorkers are expected to return another landslide victory for the Democrats when they head to the polls for the presidential election in November. A Republican has not made a concerted effort to win the state since George H.W. Bush in 1988 when his effort ultimately proved unsuccessful. Since then, the Republican Party has effectively ceded New York to the Democrats and it is considered a safe blue set. The odds reflect this, as BetOnline has -2000 on a Democrat winning New York and +1200 on a Republic clinching the Empire State.
If the Republicans were to prevail in New York in November, it would arguably the greatest political shock in recent memory. It is the joint third-largest prize in the Electoral College, with 29 votes, and victory there could swing the presidential election in President Trump’s favor. In the past few months, Trump has gone from the odds-on favorite to a +160 underdog to win a second term, while Democrat challenger Joe Biden is now the -190 favorite with BetOnline. The president has performed badly in the polls after receiving criticism for his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, the subsequent economic downturn and the Black Lives Matter protests that have spread from Minneapolis across the country.
Needing a Miracle
However, it would require a miracle for the GOP to carry New York. The Republicans have not won in New York since Ronald Reagan prevailed against Walter Mondale in 1984. Barack Obama secured 62.9% of the vote in 2008 and carried New York by an even greater margin in 2012, taking 63.4% of the vote to Mitt Romney’s 35.2%. That made New York the third most Democratic state, behind only Hawaii and Vermont. In 2016, Hillary Clinton took 59% of the vote, while Donald Trump received 36.5%.
New York has not voted in a Republican governor since choosing George Pataki in 2002. Eliot Spitzer earned 65.3% of the vote to Republican John Faso’s 27.1% in 2006, and the Democrats have eased to victory ever since. Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who has served as governor since 2010, has seen his approval rating boosted by his handling of the public health crisis. He has repeatedly clashed with President Trump, and that may not endear the GOP to voters in New York.
A Foregone Conclusion
New Yorkers have shown a tendency to elect centrist Republicans to local offices in recent years. The GOP gained a boost when State Sen. Chris Jacobs won the special election in New York to fill the remainder of former Rep. Chris Collins’ term, defeating Democrat rival Nate McMurray, who gained just 29.5% of votes. In November, Jacobs – who was unopposed in the Democrat primary – will again face McMurray. The Democrats hold a 63-seat supermajority in the Assembly and have been in the majority since 1975, while the Senate remains under the control of the Republicans.
However, it is difficult to imagine New York turning red in the presidential election, hence the vastly different odds on each party. Republican voters in the state tend to reside in Upstate New York and parts of the Hudson Valley, but they are significantly outnumbered by Democrats in New York City and its suburbs, plus cities like Buffalo, Albany, and Rochester. The state has increasingly turned blue in recent years, and the GOP will focus its efforts on important swing states like Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, while also working hard in a bid to seize Arizona, Maine, Michigan, and Minnesota, and leave New York to the Democrats.
Is It Worth a Bet?
You then have to decide if it is worth laying down $2,000 in order to make a $100 profit. It seems inconceivable that the Democrats would lose New York, but then very few people initially expected to see President Trump triumph in 2016. It is a large sum of money to risk for a relatively small reward. The current maximum bet is $100 at BetOnline, so you would only make a $5 profit if successful.
Another option might be to compile a parlay, as it seems pretty safe to throw New York in alongside California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Massachusetts, Vermont, Rhode Island, Maryland, Oregon and Colorado for the Democrats, along with Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Dakota, South Dakota, Tennessee, West Virginia, and Wyoming.
However, to get real value you would have to add in a winner of a big swing state. For example, North Carolina looks like a toss-up right now. You can find -130 on the Democrats and +100 on the Republicans. The same is true of Georgia, which is -140 for the GOP and +110 for the Democrats. These states, along with Arizona, Florida, and of course Ohio offer the most value, and they could determine the result of the election.