Across various sports betting sites, 2024 US Election odds are dominated by president Joe Biden, vice president Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump.
However, in recent weeks, Biden, who’s been the bookmakers’ favorite to win re-election for the better part of this year – albeit, by the slimmest of margins – has seen his politic odds drift recently. This raises the question of whether he’ll run for office in 2024. And if he does, will he be able to win re-election.
(visit our Sportsbook Review) has recently updated its serving of US Election odds. Conspicuously, Biden isn’t favored to win in 2024 as his odds dip into plus money. Instead, the Field is favored considerably.
Incumbency in American politics makes up for 90 percent of re-elections. Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama were the last three presidents that ran a successful re-election campaign until Donald Trump. The former president is the third president since WWII to fail at the voting box in his bid for re-election, and the first president in the 21st century to earn this dubious honour.
Perhaps, the only similarity these four men had in common is that there was never any doubt that they would bid for a second term in office. As far as Biden is concerned, his intentions aren’t absolutely certain.
Will he or won’t he? It’s a long-running debate that began before he won the 2020 US Elections, and recently gained momentum with growing concerns about his mental health.
When Biden took office, he tackled the question in a press conference by implying his intention was to run again. “My plan is to run for re-election. That’s my expectation,” said Biden during a press conference.
And yet, in spite of the assurance, Biden’s odds have been on a steady decline. This is likely in part to recent gaffes, the botched Afghanistan withdrawal that caused controversy around the world, and Republican efforts to discredit the president on mental health grounds.
It might also have something to do with conflicting statements Biden made in the lead-up to the 2020 US Elections. During the presidential race, Biden, according to a Politico article by Ryan Lizza, floated the idea to some of his aides that he might be a one-term president. An unnamed advisor suggested he wouldn’t run in 2024 at the age of 82.
“If Biden is elected,” a prominent adviser to the campaign said, “he’s going to be 82 years old in four years and he won’t be running for re-election.” [Source: Politico].
The advisor went on to suggest Biden would be a good transitional figure instead for the next Democratic nominee – a candidate that is widely expected to be a woman by the top sportsbooks and punditocracy.
2024 Democratic Primary Candidate Odds
tips Biden at +130 to win the Democratic primary in 2024, on exactly the same odds as Kamala Harris. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the belle de jour, coming in as the third-best bet in the race, but with odds as high as +2000, she’s got a long way to go to improve her chances. The same goes for Elizabeth Warren, Michelle Obama and Pete Buttigieg, all level on +2000 odds as well. The complete list of Democratic hopefuls are listed below.
US Presidential Election 2024: Democratic Candidate
- Joe Biden+130
- Kamala Harris+130
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+2000
- Elizabeth Warren+2000
- Michelle Obama+2000
- Pete Buttigieg+2000
- Amy Klobuchar+2500
- Bernie Sanders+5000
- Cory Booker+5000
- Hillary Clinton+5000
- Michael Bloomberg+5000
- Sherrod Brown+5000
- Stacey Abrams+5000
- Andrew Cuomo+6600
- Andrew Yang+6600
- Beto O’Rourke+6600
- Gretchen Whitmer+6600
- Tulsi Gabbard+6600
- Deval Patrick+8000
- Tammy Duckworth+8000
- Kirsten Gillibrand+10000
- Michael Bennet+10000
- Tammy Baldwin+12500
- Val Demmings+15000