It’s that time every four years where the media gets plenty of clicks and the US goes to the election booth. This time around, it is as crazy as ever! Not only is Trump running to make America great again for four more years, but the election is also going to take place during a global pandemic. It does not matter who you want to be president,… it matters what you can bet on and make money. Let´s have a look at some of the prop bets around the 2020 Election right now.
Electoral College – a Crash Course
A lot of people that are not from the US do not understand how the election works. It is not based on the popular vote. Think of it as a set of fifty games, one in each state, that are all played the same night. Each game has a different point value if you win (delegates). To win you need over 50% of the votes in that state.
Each campaign makes a strategy around these fifty games. They know that in some of the states they have no chance of winning so they do not spend a lot of resources there. For example, Trump is not going to win California, and Biden is not going to win Texas. Winning the election is all about winning in states that could go either way. Now that we have completed this crash course in the Electoral College, on to the bets!
Win the Electoral College and Lose the Popular Vote… it Happened Last Time
Last election Trump won the electoral college and lost the popular vote. It was a very close election and a lot of people were shocked. It showed that the Trump campaign knows how to develop a strategy to win, to get the delegates for the electoral college.
In some states like California he won’t lose 51% to 49%, he will lose 30% to 70%, and these kinds of results will have a big impact on the popular vote, but less of one on the electoral college.
The best prop bet out there is “Trump to win the Electoral College and to Lose the popular vote” right now at +2.25 or 3.25 at BetOnline. For all of you that are confused, this means that Trump is president again even though the majority of the US voted against him. Yes, that is possible and is what happened last time.
Democrat Vice President Double Chance
Biden’s running mate is going to be key to him having any chance against Trump. Biden himself is a pretty safe candidate. He is not talking about socialism like Sanders and he is not saying the words “Regime Change Wars” like Tulsi Gabbard dared to do.
The obvious choices are women, either Kamala Harris or Elizabeth Warren. Both women did not have such a bad primary season and neither are so radical to piss any large segment of the population off. How do we bet this?
We take a page out of the soccer world and bet “double chance”. We bet both an equal amount on Harris being the Democratic Vice Presidential candidate, and Elizbeth Warren being the Democratic Vice Presidental candidate.
Right now the odds are 2.00 / 3.75 at Bovada. Betting both with the same amount gets you the effective odds of 1.30. It might not look like that sexy of a bet at 1.30 but if you think about what you are covering with getting Harris AND Warren, then it is.
Sucker Bets and the Art of Rolling Over
There are a few bets that you can take that are not only long shots, but they are also the longest of long shots. Just as the Democratic Vice President double chance they might not look that sexy at first glance but hear me out.
- Our first longshot bet that I think you should be against is “Republican Nominee for the 2020 Election” I would take Trump which pays -1500 or a whopping 1.07 in decimal.
- Then we have “Democratic Nominee for the Presidential Election” Biden at -1000 or 1.10 decimal. I do not see how these are not the candidates unless they catch COVID.
- The next one is if the election will take place on 11/3/2020 with a Yes for -1500.
- And finally, the last one of these bridge jumpers is “Will Mark Cuban run for president”. No -900.
You might think to yourself “that is a lot of shitty odds” but you are looking at it wrong. My suggestion is to bet all of these low odd bridge jumpers 1.07 +1.10 +1.07 + 1.11. If we bet 100$ on each of these then we have 35$ profit.
Go ahead and bet 35$ on Trump to lose the popular vote and win the electoral college as a free bet given that the four bridge jumpers come through. Or if you are feeling, it bet 10k on Trump to be the Republican candidate to win 700$. Just remember, protect your bankroll at all times y select a reliable bookmaker from the best sportsbooks.
There are plenty of bets to be made on the 2020 Election. Just as with all the Super Bowl props, try not to get lured into betting all kinds of crazy long shot props. Keep it simple and protect your bankroll.