Trends Suggest 'Under' As The Sharp NHL Pick In Blackhawks vs. Hurricanes

Jason Lake

Tuesday, January 26, 2016 1:12 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jan. 26, 2016 1:12 PM UTC

The Chicago Blackhawks play great defense, and the Carolina Hurricanes don't score much. Looks like the UNDER might be the right NHL pick for Tuesday's matchup.

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Free NHL Pick: Under 5 (–105)
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle


Once upon a time, being a Chicago Blackhawks fan meant infinite sorrow. Now they're the defending Stanley Cup champions, having won three of these bad boys since Joel Quenneville took over as head coach in 2008. And the Hawks just keep on rolling; they've won 13 of their past 15 games to vault into first place in the Western Conference at 33-15-4.

Maybe losing to the Carolina Hurricanes lit a fire under the champs. This hot streak began right after Chicago lost 2-1 to the 'Canes (+175) on December 27. Two days later, we faded the Blackhawks on the puck line against the Arizona Not-Cardinals (+1.5, –185), and go figure, the Hawks won 7-5. What will happen when Chicago and Carolina meet again this Tuesday (7:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN) at the PNC? It doesn't look good for the Hurricanes. They're +135 home dogs on the NHL odds boards with the usual total of five goals (UNDER –110).


Calibrate Me
Just a quick aside: The betting stats you see down below are now correct. And the next time we call the Coyotes the Cardinals – or the Roadrunners – I'll eat a bug. As for the Not-Panthers, we've had them in our NHL picks twice already this season. We got paid earlier this month when they only lost 3-2 to the Vancouver Canucks (–1.5, +210), but then we faded the 'Canes on the moneyline in their next game against the Pittsburgh Penguins (–112). Fail: Carolina 3, Pittsburgh 2 in overtime. Hmmmph.

Looking back, we weren't convinced that Carolina's success against the puck line (11.23 units of profit at 32-18 ATS) would hold up against the Penguins, who were also doing fine in that regard. We have the same concerns about the Blackhawks; thanks to their winning ways, they're 3.51 units in the black at 25-27 ATS. So this time, we're turning to our old friend, the total.


Neverending Corey
It's not a difficult choice to make. Both teams have the UNDER in good shape this year: 26-16-10 for Chicago and 19-15-16 for Carolina. Corey Crawford (.932 save percentage) has allowed more than two goals just once in nine starts since that Arizona game, including two shutouts and three one-goal games. Good stuff. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes are No. 25 in the league in scoring at 2.36 goals per game.

One complicating factor, though: Eddie Lack (.899 SV%) has taken over in net for Cam Ward (.905 SV%), who's out with a concussion, and Lack hasn't been very strong between the pipes – or at least not very consistent. There isn't that much difference between the two netminders, though, and Lack still has upside, so let's roll with the UNDER, and may the cylinder be with you.


Jason's 2015-16 record as of Jan. 25: 1-1 ATS (–0.85 units), 0-3 ML (3.12 units), 0-0-1 Totals (0.00 units)

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