Trends Favor Picking the Over in Leafs vs. Red Wings

Ross Benjamin

Wednesday, December 10, 2014 4:02 PM UTC

Wednesday, Dec. 10, 2014 4:02 PM UTC

We’ll be examining the sports handicapping aspect of tonight’s NHL game between Toronto and Detroit. If you’re looking for a solid reason to wager on the total in this game, then we suggest reading this informative NHL betting preview article which culminates with a free pick on the total.

NHL Battle in the Atlantic
Two Atlantic Division teams square off tonight when the Maple Leafs visits Joe Louis Arena in Detroit to take on the Red Wings. This will be the 4th meeting of the season between these clubs, and Detroit won 2 of the first three. All 3-games stayed under the total. According to the NHL odds at Bovada, the Red Wings are a -185 money line favorite, and the posted total is 5.5.


Torrid Goal Scoring by Leafs
Toronto is coming off a 4-1 home win over the Calgary Flames last night. The win was the Leafs 2nd in a row and 6th in the last 8-games. Toronto has now scored 3-goals or more in each of their last 8-games, and has averaged 4.4 goals per contest during that span. Their 4-1 win last night stayed under the total of 5.5, breaking a string of 5 consecutive games going over the total, and they’ve now gone over the total in 12 of the last 15 overall. The good news for the Maple Leafs pertaining to tonight’s game is they will be facing a Detroit team that averages 3.1 goals per game. Toronto has gone 7-1 this season versus opponents that average 2.85 or more goals per game. The bad news is that Jimmy Howard will be the starting goaltender for the Red Wings tonight. Howard has gone 13-9 in 22-starts, and has a .917 save percentage this season. Toronto has gone 6-19 in the last 2-seasons versus a starting goaltender with a save percentage of .915 or better.


Super Hot Wings
The Detroit Red Wings enter tonight having won the last 3, 7 of the last 8, and 9 of their last 11-games. Despite the Red Wings recent hot streak, they’ve gone just 4-8 this season versus opponents within their same division. They will be facing a Toronto team tonight that allows an average of 33.3 shots on goal per game. Detroit has seen 7 of their 8-games this season go over the total when facing an opponent that allows an average of 29.5 or more shots on goal per game. Detroit has gone under the total in their previous 2-games. However, they’ve stayed under the total in just 4 of its last 22-games.


NHL Totals Betting System
Detroit enters tonight with a 17-11 (.607) money line record on the season. The last time the Red Wings faced the Leafs was on November 27th in Toronto and they were a 4-1 loser in that game. The combination of that result and the Red Wings winning percentage for the year sets up an extremely profitable betting system, and I’m going to use that handicapping tool to make one of my NHL picks for today.

Any team (Detroit) in the 1st half of the season with a winning percentage of .600 to .700, and is playing with same season revenge stemming from a loss by 3-goals or more, has seen 65 of those 92-games (70.7%) go over the total during the past 5-seasons.

Free NHL Pick: Maple Leafs/Red Wings to go over the total of 5.5 at 5Dimes

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