The Hockey Diaries: Leafs and Oilers Switcheroo

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The Hockey Diaries: Leafs and Oilers Switcheroo

2020-2021 NHL Season Record

BetsWinsLossAvg. PriceAccuracyProfit

(Gonna keep a pinned link to the February 3rd entry as a reminder for those still trekking along with me.)

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Today’s ROFL: -3.00


Unlike Saturday, I actually loved just about every position last night. Small periods of weakness from the Preds, Flyers, and Devils but overall quality performances despite the scoreline. It’s too bad not all of them have a rematch on Wednesday or Thursday. Unless the Flyers’ price is significantly shorter, they’ll be getting another shot on at least the moneyline when it opens up.

I was a bit surprised to see how far the 1P total in the Sabres/Rangers moved against me, and it was the only total I hit on any market this day. Had some closing value on about 40% of the card – none of the totals and just one first period total.

One of my least favorite situations is the Edmonton/Toronto three-game stretch here. Even though I would still price this at very close to a 50/50, the numbers have shifted this further to the Leafs side enough where I can justify playing them, or at the very least, skipping on the Oilers. With slightly better goaltending from either Smith or Koskinen, the Oil could get a W. Oh wait… they do need to register a point against the Leafs for that to happen first. Anyway, it’s nothing crazy with Toronto tonight, just a moneyline play.

Most value is the Sharks moneyline at 43%, signifying more value than the last meeting with the Avs. This has been situationally a bit of a tricky one all season for me – big dogs just unable to win two in a row against the same opponent, while favorites covering a puckline twice in a row against the same opposition have not been much better. The Kings were the only side that did not qualify for the RPL, the other four dogs get the three-unit stake.

Evander Kane
Evander Kane #9 of the San Jose Sharks. Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images/AFP

March 3rd Bets:

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Edmonton Oilers
TOR ML (-110) BetOnline
Washington Capitals vs. Boston Bruins
WAS ML (+135)
WAS -1.5 (+300)
Colorado Avalanche vs. San Jose Sharks
SJS ML (+185)
SJS -1.5 (+380)
St. Louis Blues vs. Anaheim Ducks
ANA ML (+125)
ANA -1.5 (+320)
Minnesota Wild vs. Vegas Golden Knights
MIN ML (+125)
MIN -1.5 (+310)
Arizona Coyotes vs. Los Angeles Kings
LAK ML (+105)
Team Totals
MIN O2.5 (-105)
ANA O2.5 (-110)
WAS O2.5 (-125)
SJS O2.5 (-110)
LAK O2.5 (-105)
1st Period Totals
BOS 1P O1.5 (-135)
ANA 1P O1.5 (-105)
LAK 1P O1.5 (+105)
SJS 1P O1.5 (-140)

*The picks reflect the line at the moment the writer made the play on BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our NHL odds.


Always risking 1u, never ‘to win’ 1u. If I expose two, that still remains risking 2u, not betting 2.5 to win 1 simply because the price is shorter than what I have. A standard stake here is 1u = 1% of your bankroll. This will keep you in the game instead of busting out every other day because you decided to be stupid and put your entire bankroll down on 8 wagers. If you have worse prices don’t bet more to compensate. Please do not attach my plays in parlays, you are costing yourself extra money trying to cut corners.