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The Hockey Diaries: Last Day

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The Hockey Diaries: Last Day

2020-2021 NHL Season Record

BetsWinsLossAvg. PriceAccuracyProfit
711260451+15136.57%-127.84
CLVBC%BC(W)BC(L)DBC(W)DBC(L)
0.6%57.14%20.79%36.35%15.84%27.02%

(Gonna keep a pinned link to the February 3rd entry as a reminder for those still trekking along with me.)

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Today’s ROFL: 7C20.1s6

Overtimes: WLLL WLWLL LWLLL WWLWW LLLWL LLWLL LLLWL WWLLL LWLWL LLWLL WLLLL LLWLL

Let me understand this – the game the Blues won was the one where they trailed 2-1 with 45 seconds left, and the game they lost was the one where they had a 3-0 lead ten minutes into the first period? Hockey is a funky sport. I think you could say something similar in Hawks and Bolts this past weekend. Each traded games when the other led 2-0 and arguably lost the game they played better in.

The one small victory was going 1/1 in overtime yesterday. However, the Sharks game, the one with the most exposure, hurt a bit with San Jose being blanked, and therefore, dropping the total, team total, moneyline, and puckline. This pushed the results to a 5-10 run two nights in a row.

Today is the last day following the approach that has been very lucrative for the past three seasons. It will be back when we return to a normal NHL schedule, but I am not going to continue to double down on something I can be reasonably confident is not going to be any better of a fit for the second half of the season. Though not exactly 50% through the season, it is close enough to both gather a reasonable sample of games and still give an opportunity to grind things back with our NHL picks.

The first thing you are going to notice will be the reduced volume, the second will be the increased odds. That is to say, as a general change there will be fewer bets and they will be made on lines with a greater probability of hitting (assuming they are accurately priced).

This undoubtedly means that I will not be able to dig myself out of the financial hole I am in, even if things went perfectly through the remainder of the regular season. However it is also the preferable route.

So only one market ended with profit, regulation bets, while team totals and totals nearly did. This is supremely backwards from many other years so that is my first clue. Over 100u of the -127 were lost on moneylines and pucklines alone. Moneylines had an average price of +120 while clipping at 35%, pucklines were by far the ugliest with -37% roi, and alternate pucklines were hitting at almost the same speed as their relative despite an average price of +313…though still not enough to be profitable.

It is very discouraging that the largest cohort from monitoring the closing value comes from beating the close and losing. That is based on an approach that I have little to no confidence being profitable this particular season. In fact, despite moneylines being my least profitable market at -46.63u it was the one with the greatest edge on the NHL market and beat the close at a higher frequency than my others with the exception of alternate pucklines. This flies in the face of the conventional wisdom of the closing line value argument, however NHL has long been disputed as being a major market in the first place. And that contention is what has allowed me to hit a plethora of markets in high volume for many years without a second thought. So I will continue to monitor the CLV for the markets I am involved in but I will also start this one from scratch as well. What will be most interesting is to see if with

I will also be doing away with the ROFL meter. At first it felt like a coping mechanism, and then it just became depressing to look at despite that one good stretch in 60 games of overtime. Whether I finished with 25% or 30%, the point was made long ago – overtime losses can occur in abundance and it can have dire effects on a season’s results. Yes I would not be close the hole I am in if I had hit 40%, however it was far from the only factor working against me this season.

Other than the one profitable market the other small thing going my way has been the futures. Though still a long way from concluding, three of the four divisions are in excellent position. The Hurricanes (+400) and Panthers (+1200) are second and third in the Central division by one and two points respectively. The Islanders (+1000) and Capitals (+600) are in first and second in the East division, with the Penguins (+450) tied for third. The Golden Knights (+200) and Blues (+600) are in first and second in the West. So really the only division which is not looking hot is the North division.

The other significant addition, which those who tailed during the playoffs the last two years will be familiar with, are progression bets. I will post the stake next to those. I want to get into the full explanation of this but I am running out of time today. Just message me if you’re confused about anything.

One other thing. It is incredibly time-intensive to overhaul an entire sport’s system in the middle of the season like this. If there are things I have forgot to mention or update or there are any measure of typos/delays do let me know, but understand that they are temporary. The process will become faster and easier to manage and follow.

March 7th Bets:

New Jersey Devils vs. Boston Bruins
-NJD ML +220
-NJD o2.5 +140
New York Rangers vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
-NYR ML +135
-NYR o2.5 -125
Florida Panthers vs. Carolina Hurricanes
-FLA ML +125
-FLA o2.5 -125
1st Period Totals
-NYI 1P O1.5 +115
-CHI 1P O1.5 -115
-CGY 1P O1.5 -130

*The picks reflect the line at the moment the writer made the play on BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our NHL odds.

PLEASE READ:

Always risking 1u, never ‘to win’ 1u. If I expose two, that still remains risking 2u, not betting 2.5 to win 1 simply because the price is shorter than what I have. A standard stake here is 1u = 1% of your bankroll. This will keep you in the game instead of busting out every other day because you decided to be stupid and put your entire bankroll down on 8 wagers. If you have worse prices don’t bet more to compensate. Please do not attach my plays in parlays, you are costing yourself extra money trying to cut corners.