Alright. Day 1. A lot of people reading this have followed the work I’ve made public in at least the NHL for the last few seasons. Perhaps you faded my Tyrion Lannister will rule Kings Landing strategy and the rest of my Game of Thrones props, and you think it’ll work for NHL too. Regardless of the route which brought you here – welcome!
I just want to lay out some of the ground rules for my approach and what we will be looking to accomplish this year. Three years ago I would never have thought about writing one of these types of articles, but over time you become a bit accustomed to certain categories of questions/comments, and to help everyone along, I thought I would just cover some of that from the outset.
1. I will never berate/challenge/criticize/argue/question anyone (hockey novice/sports betting rookie/former NHLers/professional colleagues) about their wagers, or why they are backing a team. Ever. And neither should you. If you look at my average prices in most of the markets I am working in, I am anticipating being wrong 50-60% of the time. It is not about who is right on a specific game, so please don’t message me with any of the following types of comments:
- I can’t see the Leafs
- What do you like about the Leafs?
- The Leafs are a bad team.
- Are you betting the Leafs just for the sake of value?
- The Leafs don’t play well on Mondays.
- The Senators are more motivated than the Leafs, so I am taking them.
You are welcome to back, fade, or pass on anything. I am not your financial advisor, nor your significant other. I am sharing what I am doing, and on a rare occasion, I will share the ‘why’ in some of the articles. Last year I provided my probabilities daily, this year, I can do so for those who request them or those who would like to open a dialogue from time to time.
Anyway, I know I’ll still get a few of these comments, but instead of starting any fuss or snapping back, I will do something different. To the crew who ‘gets it’, let’s make a pact that when we see these comments for the rest of the season we will just reply with our favorite hockey gifs – no arguments, no insults…just GIPHYS. I’ll get the train started with one of my favs:
2. I am a high volume bettor in most sports, which I share publicly. I actively look to get involved with 75-80% of games. There will be weeks where it seems higher or lower, but regardless, it does not mean you need to tail everything I take at the best betting sites. Two recommendations to limit exposure in a consistent manner:
- Only play certain markets (for example, moneylines, but not pucklines, or vice versa), but stick to it for the season.
- Only play certain price ranges (for example, -140 to +150), but stick to it for the season.
3. Staking – everything will be the same percentage of your bankroll (standard would be 1%). Yes, I am sure with a 1k bankroll many of you were thinking to get involved with something a little more enticing. You will just have to decide what is most important to you here. No that is not what I do, but it is far and away the best way to approach standard hockey markets if you’re not originating. As you personally become more accustomed to pricing things out you can experiment beyond this. If you are bitching after a bad night though I will immediately know which type of degenerate you are and probably wave goodbye to ya for the remainder of the season.
My door is always open to those who are genuine. That said, as mentioned in my futures piece – many of you are much smarter than me. Have confidence in your own ability, take the time to develop your own philosophies on approach and filters for system development, and most importantly treat it seriously… even if you just want to have ‘fun’ or as a hobby. Regardless of your unit size, your goals for betting on hockey, or gambling generally, appreciate the challenge of it. Don’t get too high when things seem figured out, and don’t go to a dark place when it feels like a record-setting losing streak.
The long term goal should always be self-improvement and increased knowledge of a sports market even if you only want to check the ‘make some money’ box. Okay, that’s the spiel. I am sure I forgot some things, but let’s get to the good stuff now anyway.
January 13th NHL Bets:
|Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Philadelphia Flyers|
|Penguins Moneyline (-110) [BetOnline]|
|Penguins Over 2.5 (-155)|
|Montreal Canadiens vs. Toronto Maple Leafs|
|Canadiens Moneyline (+120)|
|Canadiens Over 2.5 (-145)|
|Vancouver Canucks vs. Edmonton Oilers|
|Canucks vs. Oilers Under 6.5 (-120)|
|Saint Louis Blues vs. Colorado Avalanche|
|Blues Moneyline (+120)|
Always risking 1u, never ‘to win’ 1u. If I expose two, that still remains risking 2u, not betting 2.5 to win 1 simply because the price is shorter than what I have. A standard stake here is 1u = 1% of your bankroll. This will keep you in the game instead of busting out every other day because you decided to be stupid and put your entire bankroll down on 8 wagers. If you have worse prices don’t bet more to compensate. Please do not attach my plays in parlays, you are costing yourself extra money trying to cut corners.