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The Hockey Diaries: End of the Road

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Adam Boothe Hockey Diaries

NHL Season Record 2.0

FlatAvg. PriceProfitProgressionsAvg. PriceProfit
132-103-1.4848-1036.07
CLVBC%BC(W)BC(L)DBC(W)DBC(L)
0.20%38.35%20.39%17.96%29.13%32.04%

(Will keep a pinned link to the March 7th entry going forward for all those that are not in the loop. It has the final record on the old approach.)

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Today is the last of the Hockey Diaries entries. I am currently working on some very exciting, but time-intensive, esports projects for this year. The daily articles are cutting into that time and it’s not right to not be committing to the NHL stuff if it is going to be an afterthought. The second half of the season has undoubtedly been better than the first in terms of returns, however not brilliant either. However, equally the market all season long has been inefficient and misleading. I am glad I paid a little more attention to this part of my work this year, however it did not result as I had hoped. The less line value I was getting the better the returns, and vice versa, that carried on through both approaches generally and was certainly a frustrating trend.

The progressions, which have been consistent through every season of playoffs, withstood this volatile period through the two months I shared it. They finished at 6 units profit with a 5% ROI. So that was one of the few bright spots during the four months. A couple of the others are the division winner futures and the full season team totals. Here were the seven:

  • Ottawa Senators o46.5 at -110
  • Toronto Maple Leafs u72.5 at -110
  • Vancouver Canucks u63.5 at -110
  • Boston Bruins u71.5 at -110
  • New York Islanders o61.5 at -110
  • Detroit Red Wings u49.5 at -120
  • Florida Panthers o59.5 at -110

The Senators are nine points back of their number with eight games left. It is far from a certainty to get there, being the weakest team in their division, however, if Montreal secures the final spot quickly it could result in some rest days for star players on some of their opposition. So three or four wins here with a couple of overtime losses as well and we are there! In a similar context, the Leafs are eight points back of going over their total. Who knows, their game against the Senators to end the season could determine both outcomes possibly.

The Canucks under is in a fantastic position. They would likely need to win 75% of their remaining fifteen games to hit that 64 points. To be fair they are on that pace since returning from their month-long hiatus, however, wins against the Senators are the easiest to come by so splitting with them is good for us.

The Bruins could still bust my under there too, however, this is also the toughest division. That said, six of their remaining ten games are against non-playoff teams but the two most critical come against the Rangers. If Boston takes wins against both then their last two might be entirely meaningless rest days ahead of the playoffs. The Red Wings could also still go over, but all we need for that one to hit is the Jackets, Canes and Lightning to hold Detroit to two wins in their final six. Very doable. Finally, the Islanders and Panthers have already come in with a little under 20% of the season left – great result! While going 7-0 is statistically still possible, a 5-2 is what I am hoping for here.

The New York Islanders celebrate. Bruce Bennett/Getty Images/AFP

The futures end of things is also in fantastic positions. We have a ticket on three of the four division winners and would be well into profit if the season ended as is. Tampa Bay, Colorado, and Boston all still have a chance to play spoiler in those three, but they were all overvalued to start the season and those division markets are still looking that way too.

Even with a successful result on the futures, division markets and even possibly an optimistic 50-60 points of profit in the playoffs, this NHL season has been a failure for me. The staking and pricing were too aggressive through the first two months and it cost me and many others a significant amount of money. Even changing the approach in March and grinding a small amount back proved that overall NHL21 was an expensive lesson.

As I used to do in prior years, I will still post my series wagers and any conference or Cup tickets ahead of the playoffs on Twitter and a few of the channels I frequent. Want to thank everyone that gave me multiple chances to get my NHL picks on track this NHL season – I wish we could have carried on the success of years past.

SBR Update

On a personal level, there are a lot of things transitioning for me this year. As of this month, I have accepted a position to lead an esports division for a rapidly growing DFS operator which I have become quite fond of. Part of the commitment to that relationship will see me relocating in the near future from England to Atlanta, Georgia. With that in mind, it makes total sense to move more heavily into the igaming industry as esports becomes a bigger player in North America.

There is a lot to figure out but it is a very exciting next chapter. For all my American friends who said they owe me drinks for numerous esports wins or some very big NHL futures hits over the past few years…bet you didn’t think I was going to cash in on those IOU’s someday! We’ll call it the Boothy Booze Cruise, we hitting all four corners and starting in Boston!

As for the esports here at SBR, I’ll be transitioning out of that as well, but more gradually. If you have an interest in covering one or more titles on a very part-time basis please reach out to me and I’ll pass your info along to the team.