NHL Season Record 2.0
|Flat||Avg. Price||Profit||Progression||Avg. Price||Profit|
[Will keep a pinned link to the March 7th entry going forward for all those that are not in the loop. It has the final record on the old approach.]
So day one 2.0 was pretty much the same as day one 1.0. The biggest difference is instead of dropping 12u on a ‘bad night’, it was ~3. For my NHL picks, I split the two first-period totals and hit the under on the Oilers game. The best player in the world, Connor McJesus, missed an empty net that would have nicely covered the puckline as well. Koskinen did his best job keeping Ottawa fans interested with the two goals he let in. If it is not Edmonton’s defense, that lets them down. It’s their goaltending…though neither did it for their purposes yesterday, only mine.
The three progressions all dropped on the first leg and will get a B shot on their rematch in two days. You don’t have to wait for me to post those on Wednesday, you can take them as soon as they go up at your top sportsbooks. You just need to stake to recoup the one unit bet + what would have been won last night. So Montreal was 1% to win 0.71%. If they were to open at +100 (they won’t) you would stake 1.71%. If they are priced -150 on open (more likely), you would stake 2.59%. The price on Wednesday’s rematch will determine the size of the second bet.
I won’t be running more than three legs on any progression series. If people want to independently run two-legs or four-legs that is fine as well. Your returns could be better or worse depending on how many losses are accrued between 2, 3, and 4. I would not go beyond that and definitely don’t flat bet the progressions as that defeats the whole purpose.
In the various sports and esports I have shared progressions, some just choose to follow the flat bets only, which of course is perfectly fine. They are independently meant to be profitable. As you can see the table has been cleared for the new approach, which includes the market value tracking. When playing an entirely different price range it does not make any logical sense to compress two entirely different sets if the purpose is learning and assessment. Ideally, the above table would be broken down by market and price range as my own spreadsheets show.
Alright onto Tuesday.
I have taken the always difficult Red Wings over 1.5. Despite being the lowest full game team total you’ll ever see in the NHL for this price range, Detroit usually finds a way to make it interesting. That one is a two-leg progression. I will likely have 1-3 full game totals to tweet out later in the day.
|Boston Bruins vs. New York Islanders|
|NYI ML +100 BetOnline|
|NYI o2.5 +100|
|New Jersey Devils vs. Washington Capitals|
|WAS ML -180|
|Florida Panthers vs. Columbus Blue Jackets|
|CBJ o2.5 -110|
|CBJ ML +120 1%|
|Winnipeg Jets vs. Toronto Maple Leafs|
|TOR ML -180 1%|
|Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Detroit Red Wings|
|DET o1.5 -150 1%|
|DET 1P O1.5 -105|
|Nashville Predators vs. Carolina Hurricanes|
|CAR 1P O1.5 -125|
|Buffalo Sabres vs. Philadelphia Flyers|
|PHI 1P O1.5 -125|
Always risking 1u, never ‘to win’ 1u. If I expose two, that still remains risking 2u, not betting 2.5 to win 1 simply because the price is shorter than what I have. A standard stake here is 1u = 1% of your bankroll. This will keep you in the game instead of busting out every other day because you decided to be stupid and put your entire bankroll down on 8 wagers. If you have worse prices don’t bet more to compensate. Please do not attach my plays in parlays, you are costing yourself extra money trying to cut corners.