2020-2021 NHL Season Record
(Gonna keep a pinned link to the February 3rd entry as a reminder for those still trekking along with me.)
Today’s ROFL: -2.75
Overtimes: L WWLWW LLLWL LLWLL LLLWL WWLLL LWLWL LLWLL WLLLL LLWLL
I am workin’ on the morning’s esports stuff, and have my custom version of NHL Red Zone running, switch to the Ottawa feed to see a dump-in from the red line beat the Flames tendy. It is totally hilarious that a ‘shot’ like that would go in after the past two games of incredible acrobatics from Calgary’s goalies. This is not a criticism of them of course, this is just part of what makes hockey, and betting hockey, seem especially cruel at times.
I decided to turn on the old satellite feed to the Fan960 in Calgary… boy was that something. What was most interesting was hearing the broadcasters comment on how well the Flames had played in the past two games in Toronto contrasted with tonight.
If I had called in from my little brick home in England to speak with these fellas, the first thing I would have done was tapped their eyelids open to the sheer quantity of grade A scoring opportunities the Leafs were provided but could not convert. After going over the data from their first meeting in Toronto, you’ll recall I took the home side, again, on the moneyline and puckline. The sheer enormity of openings actually green-lit Toronto’s -2.5, which I also took, but did not post.
It lost of course, but the point here is that the opportunities provided to the Leafs were Calgary’s doing, not Toronto’s (mostly). This is evidenced by the thread attached to the above tweet. All of that data is available for free at multiple websites all season long. It is no secret, and nobody needs programming knowledge or a statistics background to use and understand what those percentages indicate about the current performance of the Flames in some critical aspects of their game.
The real crux of what I am saying is that the Flames did not play two good games and then one bad game. They won one game, almost won another game, and then lost a third. Or another way to phrase it, they played poorly for three straight games (beginning the sample out east), or most of the ice-time in three straight games. Do not confuse this with ‘they did not try their best, or they did not work hard, or that they did not deserve those wins’ – that is far from the point.
Alright, I am going to pause this discussion there – this diary is my version of the Fan960, and am free to cut to a commercial now.
So I don’t think it would surprise anyone to find out that a day with 25 points of profit was the strongest one this season. And that was also with the one game on the entire card going to overtime still working out to a loss for me!
Just six days ago, with 441 bets on the season, I was beating the close 62.5% with an average edge (on the market) of 0.7%, a win rate of 33%, and -110 units lost. 101 bets further, and that market edge has dropped to 0.6% approximately, beating the close 2% less, while the win percentage has jumped from 33% to 38%, and I have swiped 40% of the season’s losses over those six days.
Something I have repeatedly stated in regards to esports is not to worry about what the market is doing, focus on the number you need. That does not mean ignore it, that does not mean repeatedly double down every time it moves against you. It merely means do not qualify good bets as anything you get CLV and bad bets as anything you do not. Getting the best of losing numbers is only good over the long term if the cumulative knowledge of everyone involved draws to the correct side of the open with enough frequency to be judged as such.
I still have yet to see that significant indication that the NHL money knows what it is doing this season. Again, we still have not passed the halfway point, so it is not a conclusion, but why focus on your own probabilities? Because an inefficient market is going to lead you astray just as an ineffective approach would. At least with the latter, you know what is being used to assess value, rather than trying to follow line movement from entities foreign and unknown to you.
Anyway, I am far from ready to make any assertions about the absolute value of these theories. It is merely speculation in a volatile season, and, as promised, we will see it through to the end.
February 26th Bets:
|Colorado Avalanche vs. Arizona Coyotes|
|ARI ML (+150) at BetOnline|
ARI -1.5 (+390)
ARI o2.5 (+110)
|Boston Bruins vs. New York Rangers|
|NYR ML (+145)|
NYR o2.5 (-105)
|1st Period Totals|
|MIN 1P o1.5 (-105)|
Always risking 1u, never ‘to win’ 1u. If I expose two, that still remains risking 2u, not betting 2.5 to win 1 simply because the price is shorter than what I have. A standard stake here is 1u = 1% of your bankroll. This will keep you in the game instead of busting out every other day because you decided to be stupid and put your entire bankroll down on 8 wagers. If you have worse prices don’t bet more to compensate. Please do not attach my plays in parlays, you are costing yourself extra money trying to cut corners.