Taking Advantage Of Predators-Ducks Adjusted Total

Dana Lane

Friday, November 3, 2017 6:59 PM UTC

Friday, Nov. 3, 2017 6:59 PM UTC

The Nashville Predators try to improve their road record as they travel to Anaheim to face the Ducks at the Honda Center in a rematch of last season’s Western Conference final.

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Free NHL Pick: Over 5Best Line Offered: at BetDSI

You know how I feel about teams that are facing injuries, to me, it’s when I look at the ‘overs’ the hardest. According to the SBR odds page, the ‘total’ on tonight’s game opened at 5.5 and was quickly bet down to 5. Makes sense considering the Predators were suffocated against the San Jose Sharks managing just one goal in a 4-1 loss. Ducks matched that goal output against the Toronto Maple Leafs two nights ago losing 3-1. I don’t know how many times I have to preach this but stop betting based on what you just saw. Each game is completely separate with different teams in different cities with different puck bounces.

I’ll get back to the injuries in a second but we can’t just forget about the fact the Ducks had many good chances to score in the second period while tallying 17 shots. None of those shots found it to the back of the net but at least we know that they’re capable of making opposing netminders work even with injuries but they’ll give up their share too.

The Predators are going from the grind down style of the San Jose Sharks to face a Ducks team that should give them better looks because we’ve said it before, when a team has injuries it usually will open 5-7 better chances a game because of mistakes or bigger shooting lanes. Why? Because when players are out of place and thinking and not letting their ability to take over they’re not as affective. This puts pressure on your defense and goaltender.

Ducks goaltender John Gibson has played okay at best this season but when you’re supporting a goals against average of almost three per game it allows me the confidence to bet the ‘over’ in anticipation of the Predators creating plenty of scoring chances.

It still leaves the question, is team A strong enough offensively to exploit team B’s weakness.

There is little doubt that Ryan Johansen, Filip Forsberg, and Viktor Arvidsson will have their chances tonight. It also means that the Predators defensemen will be extremely active anticipating a Ducks offense that could sputter in the early going. Anaheim has given up over 34 shots per game so let’s not fall into the trap of thinking both teams are poor offensively so this must be an ‘under’, especially when the number is five. Nashville and Anaheim will have plenty of chances and it’s an easy number to get over.

This could be a 3-1 game with three minutes left which means you’ve handicapped properly but with the empty net goal possibility, which may not be just one score, it’s difficult to bet under five unless you think it’s going to be a very low scoring game. Too many variables at the end make me uncomfortable to bet under five.

From a trend perspective the ‘over’ in this series is 14-5-8in the last 27 meetings and 16-6-5 in their last 27 meetings at the Honda Center.

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