Stars, Habs Shoot ‘Over’ a Too-Low Total

Tuesday, March 13, 2018 3:03 PM UTC

Tuesday, Mar. 13, 2018 3:03 PM UTC

The ‘over’ is on a 7-3 run when the Stars are in a three games in four nights situation as they are Tuesday. Handicapper Dana Lane sees Montreal as a chance for Dallas to get better offensively.

[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"", "videoSize":"Large" }[/]Dallas Stars at Montreal CanadiensFree NHL Pick: Over 5.5Best Line Offered: Pinnacle

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The Montreal Canadiens (25-32-12, 62 pts, -44) return home after dropping their last five games of a six-game road trip. They’ll face the Dallas Stars (38-25-6, 82 pts, +18), who trail the Minnesota Wild by three points for the third spot in the Central Division. Puck drop is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET Tuesday and can be seen on RDS, TSN2, and Fox Sports Southwest+.

According to the SBR odds page the Stars opened as a large -170 road favorite, but the public jumped in early to push this number down to -155 at 5Dimes. The ‘total’ of 5.5 is starting to see some action due to bets coming in on the ‘under,’ which is good for us because now we just have to lay -107 to get the ‘over’. I’d recommend waiting to wager in case this number gets better.

These two haven’t met since November, so there isn’t really too much to take from that except knowing that Stars won 3-1 and Tyler Seguin was on fire (1G, 1A, +3) in 18:55 of ice time. Dallas had the game in hand for much of it, allowing just seven first-period shots and nine in the third.

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With Bishop out these last three games, Kari Lehtonen has stood tall in net, stopping 85 of 89 shots with a .955 SV%, and he gets our @budweiserusa Red Light Celly of the Week. #GoStars

— Dallas Stars (@DallasStars) March 12, 2018

Probable Goaltenders

  • Stars’ Kari Lehtonen (12-8-2, .921, 2.23)
  • Canadiens’ Antti Niemi (4-6-4, .906, 3.29)

Key Statistics

  • Stars 53.32% (Faceoffs won, 3rd)
  • Canadiens 75.7% (Penalty kill, 28th)

Stars coach Ken Hitchcock needs to stop with his science experiments and put Jamie Benn back on the top line with Seguin and Alexander Radulov. I get the attempt to get more offense throughout the lineup, but this is a team that has scored just 23 goals in their last 13 games, last in the NHL for that time period. This has never been an offensive juggernaut, but the changes have made them worse.

Seems like a bunch of numbers that would lead us to an ‘under,’ but sometimes you have to see the forest through the trees. Sources tell me that Dallas is really looking at the Montreal game to get back on track. Montreal has allowed 19 goals in their last four games and is coming home for the first time since the last day of February. The first game back is always the toughest to get focused for. The Stars have been treading water (4-4-2 last 10) of late and need a signature win desperately as they fight for a playoff spot in the West. The injury to Martin Hanzal has hurt them, especially 5-on-5, but this provides a chance for Radek Faksa and Jason Spezza to step up in the second line center role.

Montreal is coming home from a 1-3-2 road trip that saw the Habs forget all about defensive coverage, paving the way for tonight’s play. At times I have to question Montreal’s desire level, especially on the penalty kill where it could be argued that they lack the ability or confidence to execute.

I think we see Dallas take advantage of the Habs’ shortcomings as they get the ship back on track.

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