Senators vs. Penguins Odds, Picks, Predictions: Look at DeBrincat to Pull the Trigger

Following a 5-4 overtime win against the Penguins in Ottawa on Wednesday, the Senators visit Pittsburgh for the finale of their head-to-head matchup on Friday. Read on for our best Senators vs. Penguins pick based on top odds.

If the Senators are going to make any kind of playoff push, the time is now.

Ottawa is 6-5 since the holiday break but will need to start stringing together more wins if they are going to get into the playoff picture.

The Penguins hold the second Wild Card playoff spot in the Eastern Conference with 51 points in 44 games, eight points clear of the Senators. But Pittsburgh is clinging to that playoff spot, having won just twice in regulation over its previous 12 games.

Can the Senators earn a critical road win and put some pressure on the Pens?

Here is our best Senators vs. Penguins NHL pick (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

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Senators vs. Penguins Game Info

• Date: Friday, Jan. 20, 7 p.m. ET
• TV: NHL Network, ATTSN-PT, TSN5, RDS
• Location: PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh, PA

Senators vs. Penguins Odds

Check out our complete list of NHL odds!

Senators vs. Penguins Odds Analysis

The moneyline opened at FanDuel with Pittsburgh at -160 and Ottawa at +132.

Despite 81% of the early consensus money line wagers coming in on the Penguins, reverse movement now has Penguins at -154 and Sens at +128.

The total opened at 6.5 with both the Over and the Under priced at -110. There have been some slight variations in early wagering, but even with 70% of the consensus wagers on the Over, the price has settled again at -110 for both the Over and the Under.

Senators vs. Penguins Pick

Alex DeBrincat Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+110) ⭐⭐⭐

Senators winger Alex DeBrincat has not scored at the same rate that he did last season when he tallied 41 goals in 82 games for Chicago.

He has 15 goals in 44 games this season, scoring on just 9.7% of his shots even though his career shooting percentage was 15.5% entering the season.

While the pucks are not going in as consistently, DeBrincat has generated a career high 3.52 shots on goal per game. He has recorded at least four shots on goal in four of his past five games and in 10 of 21 road contests.

That all said, the reason to like DeBrincat here is just as much about Pittsburgh’s defensive woes.

The Penguins are allowing 33.9 shots against per 60 minutes on home ice, which ranks 29th.  Pittsburgh is also missing three regulars on defense - Kris Letang, Jeff Petry, and Jan Rutta.

Check out our Stanley Cup odds.

Senators vs. Penguins Best Odds

DraftKings (+110)

While player props tend to have greater variance in their pricing, the market seems to be in relative agreement on DeBrincat.

DraftKings, FanDuel, and PointsBet are all offering +110 for the Over on DeBrincat’s shot prop, which does offer a 5-6 percent edge over what BetMGM and Caesars are putting out there.

Getting DeBrincat at plus money is good value when it would be worthwhile to take this shot prop even when laying some juice.

Barring dramatic and unexpected player news the odds should not change, so focus on getting the best price, which means playing this particular prop at DraftKings, FanDuel, or PointsBet.

Senators-Penguins pick made 1/20/2023 at 11:30 a.m. ET.

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