Rested Knights the Right Play in Game One

Dana Lane

Friday, May 11, 2018 5:19 PM UTC

Friday, May. 11, 2018 5:19 PM UTC

Vegas is 7-1 against teams that scored five or more in their previous game. The Winnipeg Jets get one day to enjoy their game seven victory over the Nashville Predators as the Golden Knights invade MTS Place to start their best of seven Western Conference Final.

Vegas Golden Knights vs Winnipeg Jets

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3469018, "sportsbooksIds":[19,1096,139,169,93], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Series Price: Winnipeg -142Free NHL Pick: Vegas +130Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

According to the SBR odds page the opening number is right around where I would expect it to be, Winnipeg -135. Early on it appears that the ‘sharp’ money is on the Jets in game one as most lines have increased with the best number belonging to Pinnacle at -141. I do anticipate some buy back so if you like the Jets wait until tomorrow afternoon I think you’ll find a better number. Of course, if you like Vegas jump on it now as I did getting a solid +133.

The ‘total’ has jumped up from 5.5 to 6 (-110/under). I’m not really sure what the oddsmakers were thinking but someone thought it was a good idea to give two top five offenses a low total to start. Now there’s liability proving once again why you can find the softest numbers in the NHL.

It seems like the same argument that yours truly made against the Golden Knights in round two against San Jose, the Jets have too much depth for Vegas to deal with. I won’t make that mistake again although I do agree with that observation. The first two lines are a wash but it’s the third line battle that Vegas must win to find success. That means Cody Eakin (3G, 1A, 4pts, last 10) and Oscar Lindberg (0G, 1A, 1pt, last 10 games) must provide more secondary scoring while Alex Tuch (4G, 3A, 7pts last 10 games) must continue to give that line a boost until his linemates can catch up. Outside of Tuch the Knights are having hard time finding consistent scoring although they’re keeping opposing goaltenders honest. The problem is the shots on goal numbers are decent but the quality chances are lacking.

Man for man anyone can see that the Jets have the advantage but this has never been a Knights team that you could apply a number to and expect to come out with a reason why for their success. This team has relied on their speed to frustrate teams for 200 feet. If they get the lead it makes matters worse for their opponent because it adds a defensive confidence, adding to the giant chips on their shoulders.

This will be a series that will be determined by which team is the more disciplined and can Vegas continue to hold down the Jets third line that has just six points in their last 10 combined games. The Eakin vs Bryan Little match-up will be huge in determining the outcome of this series.

Let’s get Vegas in game one as they are not only the more rested of the two teams but they’ve had more time to prepare for whatever either semi-final winner.

comment here