Red Wings, Hurricanes to Produce Another 'Under'

Dana Lane

Friday, February 2, 2018 4:32 PM UTC

Friday, Feb. 2, 2018 4:32 PM UTC

Four games on Friday's NHL schedule, and this handicapper finds value in Detroit at Carolina. The 'under' is 6-2-2 in their last 10 meetings in Raleigh. 

Detroit Red Wings at Carolina HurricanesFree NHL Pick: Under 5.5Best Line Offered: Pinnacle

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What a day on SBR on Thursday as we’re heating up for the stretch run of the 2017-18 NFL season. Started the day by crushing another 3-0 day on the "Ice Guys Show" and then finished it off with a winner in this column. Don’t forget to tune in Saturday at 9 a.m. ET for another addition of the "Ice Guys Show" with Ian Cameron, Alex B. Smith, and Andrew McInnis.

Before I get into tonight’s play, let's look at overall betting trends so far, this season.

Home favorites have dominated to winner’s circle, as they do in every season. With only a few months, left home favorites have cashed tickets more than 58% of the time (349-187-50-15). With that always comes the caveat of don’t bet games over -150 because a few -180 losers can really eat up your bankroll even when you win 58% of the time, especially when backing home favorites.

Puck-line bettors, when taking the +1.5, have found a return of 67% (410-200), but, again, beware because most books will ask you to lay well over -200 to get the goal and a half. The win percentage is impressive, but it’s not a smart wager when building a bankroll is the goal.

Much has been made of how high the totals have been this year, and that’s a fair point because we’ve already seen a 7.5 when the New York Islanders went to Vegas to play the Golden Knights. Remember, perception is everything when hanging a number, and the perception is that games have been flying over the totals, which is not true with he UNDER cashing a sliver more than the OVER (389-377). With a bunch of 6's and 6.5's, those are the type of games that I really like to take advantage of when betting totals.

Let’s talk about tonight’s game.

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— Detroit Red Wings (@DetroitRedWings) February 1, 2018

The issue for the Detroit Red Wings has always been that they’ve been too pretty in the offensive end; rather than getting the puck to the net and getting the greasy goals, they’d rather make the extra pass for the perceived easier score. If there is any team where its offensive production is a direct reflection of the amount of shots it gets, it’s the Wings. Detroit is ranked 28th in shots per game (29.9) and 28th in goals per game (2.53). From the Wings' perspective there is no way I can back a team like this on a consistent basis. They simply don’t generate enough chances to justify an OVER wager.

Now they face a Hurricanes team that is almost as bad with just 2.71 goals per game (24th), even though they generate way more chances (34.2/5th). I see this game with about 60 shots on net along with a minimal amount of scoring chances.

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