Rangers vs Senators Game 6: Free Pick & Odds Analysis

Rangers vs Senators

Dana Lane

Tuesday, May 9, 2017 7:12 PM GMT

Its win or go home for the New York Rangers but with the price being too high NHL analyst Dana Lane has his focus on tonight’s ‘total' to keep his profitable playoff run going further.

A light one game card isn’t giving us much to choose from so we have to tread lightly when we're forced to make a pick on one game. The reality is that tomorrow will be the last time we'll have multiple games to bet on until the Fall. Tread lightly with your bankroll as the only goal now is to protect your profit. I would normally back the Rangers in a game six home scenario but it's not responsible to lay -170 to do so, leaving with tonight's total as the only option. 

Despite the game five loss the Rangers have been reliable to put up goals, scoring 17 times in their last four games in the series. In game five there were 70 combined shots in the Senators 5-4 overtime win, giving the Sens a 3-2 series lead, after managing just 53 in game four. It seems like a lot but I think there is more to be had. Of the 70 shots the Rangers managed to take part in just 33 of those chances without the production of their second defensive pairing of Nick Holden and MarcStaal who totaled just one shot on goal in 42 minutes of ice time. 

Staal is not as active because he’s still trying to figure out his below average defensive game, either way, that bodes well for either more of an offensive role for Staal, more Ottawa chances, or both. Staal and Holden aren't the defensemen to blame, throw Dan Girardi in the mix. Girardi and Staal have been on the ice for 13 of the 15 total goals allowed by the Rangers in this series. The problem is none of those came when they were both on the ice so each pairing has been responsible for allowing high-quality Senator chances. 

Holden and Staal are responsible for over 50% of the total Ranger goals allowed in the postseason. 

The deciding factor for our wager has to be the less than stellar play of both goaltenders.  For the Rangers, Henrik Lundqvist owns a save percentage of .909 while Craig Anderson is worse with a .898. If we anticipate just 55-60 shots on net tonight that would mean that we’ll be right on the number or over with an empty net at the end. 

A Ranger defense that gives up too many chances along with below average play from both netminders pushes me to back the 'over' 5 tonight

Also, keep checking SBR's NHL Odds page for the best available number on tonight’s play.

 

Final Regular Season NHL Selection Record:
87-73   .544   +16.95 units

Postseason Record:
11-11   .500  +3.31   units

Overall:
98-84   .539  +20.26 units

 

Free NHL Pick: Over 5Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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