Predators & Bruins to Fly Over the Total

Boston Bruins

Dana Lane

Tuesday, March 28, 2017 5:56 PM GMT

Last night the Predators and Islanders easily went ‘under’ so bettors are flocking to the window to bet tonight’s game ‘under’ in response to what the public just saw.  Champion handicapper Dana Lane explains why the public is wrong once again.

Both the Nashville Predators and the Boston Bruins are coming off low scoring contest so naturally, the betting public and the professionals are crushing the ‘under’.  The total opened at 5.5 -105 but after 65% of the early tickets had ‘under’ stamped on them, driving the money up to -125 shaded to the ‘under’.

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This is a critical homestand for the Boston Bruins as the B’s try to hang on to their playoff spot. Tuukka Rask will be back in net for the Bruins after missing Saturday’s game with the Islanders, a 2-1 victory, with a lower body injury.  Rask was back at practice Monday.  It’s not a surprise that most are betting the ‘under’ considering Boston limited the Islanders to just 19 shots but with Anton Khudobin in net, the Bruins played a defensive style of hockey to protect Khudobin.  With Rask back in net, we’ll see the Bruins team who is second in the league with 33.6 shots per game. 

The problem with Rask is he always leaves you trying to guess when he going to play like the former Vezina Trophy winner.  Rask is 33-20-4, with a .910 save percentage along with 2.38 goals against average.  I’ve pointed out a million times that we should never overreact to a key player returning to the line-up.  I anticipate Rask being at his best Thursday against Dallas. 

The reason why the Islanders are struggling to get into this year's playoffs is their lack of defensive consistency.  Only four other teams give up more goals per game than New York at 2.99. Over the last month, New York has been worse allowing 3.21 g/gm.

Earlier in the year, I went over some rules when handicapping and this is a classic example of an earlier rule. Never assume that what you watched in two teams previous game will equate into what will happen tonight.  Instead, believe in what a team has been over the course of a season and that’s two teams who keep opposing goaltenders on their toes with supported by average goaltending. 

Sounds like an ‘over’ to me.

 

Free NHL Pick: Over 5.5Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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