Predators-Avalanche Series to Finally Hit 'Under' on Wednesday

preds avs

Dana Lane

Tuesday, April 17, 2018 5:04 PM GMT

Tuesday, Apr. 17, 2018 5:04 PM GMT

In games after Nashville gives up at least five goals, the "under" is 9-1-1 in its next game. That's a trend to take advantage of in Wednesday's matchup at Colorado.

NHL Wednesday: Predators vs. AvalancheFree NHL Pick: 'Under' 6Best Line Offered: Betmania

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The Colorado Avalanche made a statement in Game 3 against the Nashville Predators on Monday when they cut the Predators' 2-0 series lead in half with a 5-3 home win, thanks in part to Nathan MacKinnon's two goals. The Preds have now played in five straight "overs," which is surprising considering how good Nashville is on the defensive end. In the postseason, Peter Laviolette’s team is just 10th among 16 playoff teams in goals allowed (11).

In order for the Avalanche to take control of the series they’ll need to be better on the penalty kill, a task they’re more than capable of considering they’re the league’s fourth-best penalty-kill unit. Nashville has scored a power-play goal in each of the first three games while enjoying an average of four power-play chances in the last two games.

Game 4 is Wednesday night (10 ET; NBC Sports Network).

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Let’s do it again on Wednesday.#StanleyCup #GoAvsGo pic.twitter.com/P3qHH4ZknM

— Colorado Avalanche (@Avalanche) April 17, 2018
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Nashville opened as a -165 road favorite for Game 4, according to the NHL odds board. The number is a little higher than what we saw for Game 3 (-157). It appears to be a solid number for now with the public still debating how to handle Game 4, with the home teams showing they could not only win a game but win it in convincing fashion. The Predators are still the superior team, but public and the "sharps" are trending lightly. We can see some small moves that have pushed the number up to -167 at Skybook.

There has been an adjustment in the "total" from the 5.5 we’ve seen through three games. Opinions seem to vary but Game 4 has a "total" of 6 with a shade on the "over" in most spots. If you like the "over," there are still some reasonable numbers that offer juice of just -103. I do expect the "over" number to go up, so bet it now if that’s the side you like.

They say a series isn’t over until you win on the road. With the Avalanche holding serve, this one is far from over. As I said on Monday's "Ice Guys" show, it has been a while since we’ve seen a defensive performance from the Predators that looked to be Stanley Cup worthy. Yes, I know, they held teams to two goals and less here and there, but I’m talking about an effort where they owned their end of the ice. You would have to go back to March 27 against Minnesota to find that kind a defensive zone stranglehold.

If the Predators are to hold on to this series, we must see that kind of effort from Nashville starting in Game 4. In my NHL picks, I’m betting the "under" finally hits, with Nashville realizing that a track meet might not be the best formula for success.

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