Plus Money Total Too Good to Pass Up in Kings-Flames

Dana Lane

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 4:55 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jan. 24, 2018 4:55 PM UTC

The 'over' is 3-0-2 in the last 5 meetings between Los Angeles and Calgary, and the Pacific Division rivals meet Wednesday night (10 ET) from the Scotiabank Saddledome.

Los Angeles Kings at Calgary FlamesFree NHL Pick: OverBest Line Offered: Heritage

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Cut and paste.

Last night we cashed another ticket.

I know someone is getting rich somewhere, because we’ve been on an incredible streak that started at the start of December and haven’t stopped since. The Ottawa Senators on Tuesday couldn’t generate one goal against Carter Hutton as the St. Louis Blues handed the Senators a 3-0 loss, easily going UNDER the total for our winner.

Tonight, we head to Canada to get our winner from the only real option on the board considering there are just two games. Calgary is a -170 favorite and Los Angeles isn’t an option, so we are limited to the total. I guess you have to make lemons out of lemonade when you’re limited, but we’ll find a winner anywhere.

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Quick fixes for what ails the Los Angeles Kings

— Greg Wyshynski (@wyshynski) January 22, 2018

It’s incredible how bad the Flames are at home. With a win tonight, I will be compelled to jump them back up in my top 10 power rankings. My reluctance right now is their 12-11-2 record at home. To me, that’s less than .500. I always add the OTL column to the loss column. It’s silly how the NHL keeps track of their standings. So why are they so bad at the Saddledome and so good on the road with a 13-5-4 record?

I suppose we could start with the play of Mike Smith in goal, particularly at home. He splits are night-and-day. Away from Calgary, Smith is spectacular in posting a 9-3-3 record with a .948 save percentage and 1.83 goals against average. At home it’s a much different story, where Smith is 11-10-2 with a below-average GAA of 2.77 and a save percentage of .909. Against the Kings, his GAA is even worse at 2.98 even though he’s not lost to Los Angeles (2-0) this season. Nothing about his form this season makes me want to play an UNDER when Smith is in goal at home.

Darcy Kuemper gets the start for the Kings. Kuemper’s season numbers are fantastic (5-1-3, 2.18, .931) but in his last five starts we’ve seen some cracks in his game allowing at least three goals in three of those outings. Kuemper started the season well, but GAA in December was 2.65 and it's 2.59 in January. The trends suggest that he hasn’t been as strong in the last two months, even if his overall numbers still would seem that he would be a strong UNDER net-minder.

According to the SBR Odds page, we’re going to have a pros vs joes in this one. There is a much higher percentage of bets coming in on the OVER, 60% to be exact, but the number continues to go up from the opening 5.5 (under -130). It’s now at -136 (Under) in some spots with a few -140s popping up. Good news for me because there isn’t any rationale reason to play the UNDER while being asked to lay that price. Take the plus +125 and line right back up at the cashier’s cage.

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