Players Who Could Provide Shots On Goal Prop Value

Our NHL Expert Scott Cullen breaks down the numbers to give you some players who could provide value on their shots on goal prop.

When seeking players that might be able to provide value for shots on goal props, there is value to recent information. The point is finding players who might be underrated, and perception can help drive those evaluations.

Here are four different categories of players to target when looking at NHL shots on goal props.

Emerging Young Players

In any daily fantasy or prop wagering endeavor there is an opportunity to find value in a player who does not have a long track record.

Although second-year Senators forward Tim Stützle has just one goal in 19 games, the team has given him a bigger role and with more ice time comes more shots on goal (SOG). In the past five games, Stützle has 16 shots while averaging 19:07 time on ice.

The Devils’ Jesper Bratt was mediocre to start this season, averaging 2 SOG per game while contributing three points (1 G, 2 A) in eight games. Since then, in a dozen games, he has 15 points (5 G, 10 A) and 3.33 SOG per game.  

Anaheim Ducks rookie center Trevor Zegras was considered a playmaker who was inconsistent when it came to shooting. In the first 13 games of the season, Zegras had 28 SOG (2.15 per game). But now, he is becoming more well-rounded in his attack. In the past eight games, Zegras has put 27 SOG (3.38 per game).

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Defensemen

Typically, expectations are going to be relatively modest for most defensemen when it comes to shot rates. That’s what makes it notable if one starts accumulating shots at a higher rate.

New York Rangers defenseman Jacob Trouba, for example, came to the Blueshirts with more of an offensive pedigree than he has shown in the Big Apple. Recently, though, he has increased his shot output, recording 27 SOG in the past seven games (3.86 per game). He had 28 SOG in the previous 13 games (2.15 per game).

Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Morgan Rielly had zero goals and 31 SOG (2.07 per game) through the first 15 games this season. In eight games since Rielly has scored three goals and has fired 27 SOG (3.38 per game). Both players have tremendous value on their shots on goal props.

Secondary Players

A lot of times, star players are the ones that are easiest to find for these props. However, if you can find secondary players, there may be a better opportunity to secure value.

Florida Panthers winger Frank Vatrano has tended to play lower in the lineup but has always been able to generate shots. His ice time was down but not to a degree that would justify his decline in shot rate. In a dozen games since then, Vatrano has 39 SOG in 12 games (3.25 per game) and his ice time is up a couple of minutes per game over his early-season ice time.

One of the bigger offensive surprises in the league this season is Minnesota’s Ryan Hartman. He had averaged 1.76 SOG per game in his career coming into the 2021-2022 season. This season, he is up to 3.36 SOG per game, a major spike in shot rate to accompany an extra couple of minutes of ice time per game.

Strangely enough for Winnipeg Jets forward Andrew Copp, he was scoring early in the season but had a modest 32 SOG in 15 games (2.13 per game). More recently, his scoring numbers have fallen off but Copp does have 27 SOG in his past seven games (3.86 per game).

SEE ALSO: Breaking Down 3 Early Surprise Teams in the NHL

New or Changing Opportunities

This might be the biggest one of all. Even if you are well aware of a player, a bump in ice time, a bigger role on the power play, any new linemates could dramatically affect that player’s production and how often they hit their shots on goal prop.

The Tampa Bay Lightning have needed to lean on center Anthony Cirelli more than ever this season. In his first 14 games this season, Cirelli recorded 20 SOG (1.43 per game). Since then, with Brayden Point sidelined, Cirelli has 22 SOG in seven games (3.14 per game). He's averaging more than 22 minutes of ice time per game.

A major offseason acquisition for the Vancouver Canucks, winger Conor Garland was not generating a lot of shots early, putting 31 on goal in 16 games (1.94 per game). Recently, though, Garland has become more of an offensive driver for the struggling Canucks. In his past seven games, Garland has 34 SOG (4.86 per game) and seems to have found a fit on a line with Elias Pettersson and rookie Vasily Podkolzin.

Finally, Boston Bruins sniper David Pastrnak opened the season with 33 SOG in eight games. That's a rate of 4.13 per game, which would be among the league leaders. He has elevated his production in the past month, however, and in his past 11 games, Pastrnak has 59 SOG, a lofty 5.36 per game. Even when a player is playing at an elite level, sometimes, production can move up further still.

The concern with any small sample surge in production is whether or not it is going to be sustainable. By the time it is statistically established as sustainable, the opportunity to find real prop value may be gone. Be aware of how player production can change over relatively short periods of time.

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