Play Ducks at +109 vs. Stars for NHL Pick

Ross Benjamin

Friday, October 31, 2014 12:43 PM UTC

Friday, Oct. 31, 2014 12:43 PM UTC

Our resident NHL betting odds professional examines tonight’s game between Dallas Stars and Anaheim Ducks, and provides us with an informative detailed handicapping analysis, including a free pick on the money line.

Early Playoff Rematch in “Big D”
The Stars will host the Ducks tonight at the American Airlines Center in Dallas with the opening puck drop scheduled for 8:35 PM ET. According to the NHL odds at 5Dimes, the Stars are a -113 money line favorite, and the posted total is 5.5. These teams met in the Western Conference Quarterfinals a season ago, and the Ducks prevailed in 6-games. The teams split their 4 regular season games in the 2013-2014 campaign.


On an Under Roll
The Ducks enter tonight off a 2-0 loss at St. Louis last night, and have now gone under the total in each of their last 7-games. Those 7-contests have produced an incredible low total of 3.4 goals per game, and the Ducks have allowed just 9-goals during that time frame. Tonight will be their 3rd of a grueling 4-game in 6-day road trip, and will also be their 3rd game in the last 4-days in addition to the 4th in the last 6-days. They opened the trip with a 1-0 win at Chicago on Wednesday, and are now 4-2 on the road this season. The Ducks have been dominant in the 3rd period of games this season by outscoring the opposition 13-6. Anaheim will insert Frederik Andersen in goal for tonight’s game after using John Gibson last night. Andersen has gone 6-1 in his 7-starts with a superb 1.70 GAA, and an excellent .940 save percentage.


No Rewards by Working Overtime at Home
The good news for the Dallas Stars is they’ve earned at least 1-point in each of their first 4 home games this season. The bad news, they’ve lost 3 of those 4-games, and all 3 of the losses have come in overtime. The Stars enter tonight with 2-days of rest following a 4-3 overtime loss at home versus St. Louis on Tuesday. Tonight will be just their 3rd game in the past 7-days. Dallas has gone over the total in 4 of their last 5-games, and during that span has scored 22-goals. Unfortunately they’ve also allowed 22-goals during that period as well. Contrary to tonight’s opponent, the Stars have been outscored 13-7 in the 3rd period this year. Dallas games have averaged a large 7.3 goals so far.


Final Analysis
Granted the Ducks will be at a distinct disadvantage in terms of rest. However, Anaheim has gone 20-7 the last 27 when playing with no rest, and 24-6 the last 30 when playing their 3rd game in 4-days. With red-hot Frederik Andersen back in goal tonight, it will provide them with an additional betting edge. The Stars style isn’t conducive to success versus an opponent like Anaheim. I’m leaning toward using the road team in this one for today’s NHL picks.

Free NHL Pick: Ducks +109 over the Stars at Pinnacle

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