Rangers vs. Maple Leafs Picks: Toronto Big Favorites for Matthews' Debut

Auston Matthews will make his season debut as the Maple Leafs host the New York Rangers in Toronto on Monday night. The Leafs are big favorites as they welcome back last season's Rocket Richard winner.

The Toronto Maple Leafs and New York Rangers are back in action after a day off on Sunday. Both the Leafs (2-1 straight up, 0-2-1 Over/Under) and Rangers (1-2 SU, 0-3 O/U) are coming off 3-1 victories on Saturday. The Leafs got revenge on the Ottawa Senators at home while the Rangers took down the Canadiens in Montreal.

Toronto enters this contest as a large favorite in what will be Auston Matthews' season debut. Last season's Rocket Richard winner missed the team's first three contests recovering from wrist surgery after scoring an NHL-best 41 goals.

Here are my picks and predictions for Monday's NHL matchup between the Rangers and Maple Leafs. (Odds via DraftKings).

Rangers vs. Maple Leafs Game Info

Date/Time: Monday, October 18th, 7 p.m. ETTV: MSG, SportsnetLocation: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON

Rangers vs. Maple Leafs Odds Analysis

The Maple Leafs are heavy favorites at home, coming in at -195 odds on the moneyline while the Rangers are a +160 underdog.

Oddsmakers are expecting a relatively high-scoring game here. The total for Monday’s matchup between the Rangers and Maple Leafs is set at six goals (-115 over, -105 under).

Rangers vs. Maple Leafs Picks

Maple Leafs (-195)Under 6 Goals (-105)Adam Fox Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-145)

SEE ALSO: Can Auston Matthews Win the Hart Trophy?

Rangers vs. Maple Leafs Predictions

Maple Leafs (-195)

The Maple Leafs are heavy favorites in this game, and for good reason. They are 2-1-0 on the season and their only loss came on the second half of a back-to-back against a rested Ottawa Senators team. They lost that one 3-2 but outshot the Senators 48-36 in the game. Two nights later, on Saturday, the Maple Leafs got revenge in Toronto with a 3-1 win while outshooting the Senators 29-21.

Matthews will add another boost to Toronto's potent lineup for this matchup. He has scored 40-plus goals in back-to-back seasons and will be a threat to score on the powerplay.

The Rangers, on the other hand, have struggled out of the gate this season. They got embarrassed on opening night in a 5-1 loss to the Washington Capitals and dropped their home opener 4-3 in overtime to the Dallas Stars the next night. They finally got their first win on Saturday night in Montreal, but they were outshot 32-24 by a Canadiens team that is a shell of itself.

All signs point to the Maple Leafs coming away with the win in this one.

Under 6 Goals (-105)

The Rangers and Maple Leafs have both yet to have a game go Over the total this season. It’s only three games for each team, but it’s worth noting.

New York settled down after a blowout loss on opening night to allow four goals (including one in overtime) in its next two games, while Toronto has only allowed five goals total in three games so far this season.

One of the main reasons to lean to the Under here is the two probable starting goalies.

Rangers goalie Igor Shesterkin has allowed just four goals on 58 shots (.931 save percentage) in his two starts. He's had good numbers in his young career, too, with a 26-16-3 record and .921 SV% in 47 games across his first two NHL seasons.

Jack Campbell, meanwhile, has been a rock for the Maple Leafs. He allowed just one goal in both of his starts with a perfect 10-for-10 performance in 19:27 of relief in Ottawa after Peter Mrazek was injured. He has a 2-0-0 record and .968 SV%, saving 61 saves of the 63 shots he has faced. The 29-year-old goalie is getting his first crack at a real starting job with Toronto after going 17-3-2 with a .921 SV% last season.

This should be a low-scoring affair in Toronto.

Adam Fox Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-145)

Adam Fox is the reigning Norris Trophy winner and leads the Rangers with 11 shots on goal through three contests (3.67 shots per game) this season. That makes his 1.5 shots on goal prop enticing.

Fox averages over 25 minutes per game and plays on the Rangers' top powerplay unit. He had four shots on goal in the season opener, six in the home opener, but just one last game. He did, however, have three shot attempts in total (two missed the net).

The Maple Leafs allowed two or more shots on goal to their opponents’ top defenseman in each of their first two games, and Fox had two or more shots on goal in 31 of 55 games last season. Take the Over.