of the Tape
The Philadelphia Flyers host the Toronto Maple Leafs on Friday at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania with the opening face-off slated for 7:05 PM ET. According to the NHL betting odds the Flyers are a -165 money line home favorite and the posted total is 5.5. These teams have seen 5 of their last 6 meetings go over the total. Toronto has won 4 of the last 5-games between these clubs. Toronto is in a 4-way tie for 7th overall in the Eastern Conference. The Flyers are 3rd in the Metropolitan Division and 6th overall in the East.
Stopping the Bleeding
The Maple Leafs enter tonight losers of their last 6-games in a row, and 7 of their last 8. They've allowed a whopping 32-goals over their last 8-games. With just 8-games left in the regular season they now find themselves in a very desperate situation in regards to their playoff aspirations. Although they're tied for 7th overall in the East with 3 other teams, if the season were to end today, only 2 of those clubs would make the playoffs. Unfortunately for Toronto, the other 3 playoff contenders all have a game, or games in hand on the Leafs. Following tonight they embark on a 4-game in 8-day home stand that will begin tomorrow. Following their stay at home they will culminate the regular season by playing 3-games on the road. The Leafs are just 14-23 versus the money line on the road this season.
out of the Woods
As well as the Flyers have played in the 2nd half of the season, they're far from entirely out of the woods in regards to feeling secure about qualifying for the postseason. They find themselves 3-points ahead of a cluster of 4-teams that are vying for the final 2 playoff spots in the East. They enter tonight having dropped their last 2-games, the last of which was a 3-1 road loss at the hands of the Rangers on Wednesday. The good news is they're back on home ice where they've gone 20-7 in their last 27 versus the money line. The Flyers are an extremely profitable 11-1 at home the last 3 seasons following a game in which they scored 1-goal or less. Philadelphia is also a stellar 15-4 at home this season versus opponents that allow an average of 29.5 or more shots on goal per game. They've gone over the total in 20 of 28-games this season versus an opponent that averages 2.85 or more goals per game, including 11 of their 14 since game 42 of the season.
NHL Betting System
Any home team in the 2nd half of the season that's facing an opponent that averages 2.85 or more goals per game, and that opponent has allowed 3-goals or more in each of their last 5-games, has gone 33-13 (71.7%) versus the money line in the last 5 seasons.
Free Pick: Philadelphia -165 over Toronto