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Penguins vs. Lightning NHL Picks and Predictions

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Penguins vs. Lightning NHL Picks and Predictions
Nikita Kucherov #86 of the Tampa Bay Lightning celebrates. Mike Carlson/Getty Images/AFP

Christmas has finally arrived for all NHL fans as we kick off the first NHL game of the season. The Tampa Bay Lightning are seeking to become the first team in the salary cap era to win three Stanley Cups in a row.

We all love the optimism surrounding the start of a new season, let’s check out the NHL odds in this opening 2021 game.

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

Tuesday, October 12, 2021 – 07:30 PM EDT at Amalie Arena

Penguins Seek To Make Amends For Last Seasons

The Penguins will be looking to set things right this season after cruising to top place in the East Division last season, they were then dumped out by the New York Islanders in just the first round. Although it may surprise some, the Penguins actually put up the 2nd most amount of goals per game (3.45). We knew they could score but most people wouldn’t have put them in the top 5.

The Penguins have to put up with the fact they will be most likely without three of their star players in the form of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Jake Guentzel. Crosby and Guentzel were moved to questionable at the time of writing but Malkin is most definitely out.

It’s going to be a tough season for this Pittsburgh team, who won’t have Malkin until at least November, but most likely longer.

Tampa Bay Going for the Hat Trick

The Stanley Cup defence begins on home ice this Tuesday night in Florida, with the core of the team still sticking around, they are hopeful of yet another title defence in 2021. Yes, they have lost their WHOLE third line, but we really don’t think that matters, the additions they made to fill the third line have been solid signings, especially the purchase of Corey Perry, who was instrumental in the Montreal Canadians playoff run last season.

*Trends should never be your main source of information when it comes to making your betting picks, they are merely guidelines and mostly irrelevant information but nonetheless can be interesting to read.

Tampa Bay Lightning

  • Tampa Bay are 5-0 in their last five games when playing at home against Pittsburgh.
  • The total has gone under in 14 of Tampa Bay's last 20 games against an opponent in the Metropolitan Division.

Pittsburgh Penguins

  • Pittsburgh is 2-5 in their last seven games against an opponent in the Eastern Conference.
  • The total has gone over in four of Pittsburgh's last five games on the road.

What Are the Betting Odds and Current Lines?

Moneyline: The Lightning is best priced up on the moneyline as they are currently -190. It jumped from its opening odds of -120.

Total: The total for this game is sitting at 6.0 right now, although one might suspect it to drop to 5.5 come closer to game time as the realization that the Penguins might struggle to score here comes on the late bettors.

Puck Line: The best odds on the Lightning -1.5 puck line is around +135, a bet we believe could be a solid play. If you think the Penguins know how to shut down this Lightning side then they can be taken at +1.5 at odds of -155, from its opening -230.

Betting Prediction

The moment has finally arrived, our first official pick of the 2021/22 NHL season. We must respect the Pittsburgh Penguins here, but not too much as they are very much weakened by the absence of Sidney Crosby and co.

Even if all three of those players were fit, we would still lean towards the Lightning here as they will want to first lay down the hammer on home ice in defence of their Stanley Cup, but also the feel-good party atmosphere at Amalie arena here could give the Lightning that extra boost to secure their first win of the season.

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We are taking a peculiar angle here to get some extra value out of the play. We clearly like the Lightning to win here but aren’t prepared to pay the -190 juice. If we add the under 7.5 as well as Lightning to win on the moneyline we can get +135.

Although a lot of the previous h2hs between these teams have seen over 7.5 goals, we think this one should hopefully be safe with the under 7.5 as the Penguins should favour defence here and the Lighting could be here to just get the job done and not put up big numbers on opening night.

If you cannot get on this exact NHL pick, we think a similar sort of bet is Tampa Bay -1.5 on the puck line, this seems like maybe a 4-1, 4-2, 5-1 sort of scoreline here, in fact, we wouldn’t be surprised to see under 4.5 goals here.

Parlay Pick

Lightning ML (-190)

Total Under 7.5 Goals

Parlay (+135)

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.