Over To Light Up Our Bankroll in Calgary

Dana Lane

Saturday, December 9, 2017 5:25 PM UTC

Saturday, Dec. 9, 2017 5:25 PM UTC

The Calgary Flames are back home off of a small road trip as they host the Vancouver Canucks tonight at Scotiabank Arena, Puck Drops at 10:00 ET/7:00 PT

Vancouver Canucks vs Calgary Flames

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Free NHL Pick: OVER 5.5Best Line Offered: at Matchbook

The Anaheim Ducks and Minnesota Wild were gracious enough to cash another ‘Play of the day’ winner last night. It got close but in the end the UNDER gave our bankroll a nice cushion heading into the weekend. I did want to address a topic that came up on ‘The Ice Guys Show’ this morning. It wasn’t a big conversation piece but I did think it was worth a mention.

The question is, how much is too much when looking for a betting line. I’ve been conditioned over the years to think that -150 was the limit. It seems every web site or newspaper that I’ve contributed over the years uses that number as the limit. I think that’s a solid stopping point even though others think -120 or -130 are at the edge for them. I certainly understand that but here’s my rationale behind giving myself a little more leeway.

The point to wagering is to find a mis-match with one team over another. Usually, the greater the money-line, the better one team is over the other. Using today’s schedule as an example, I went with the St. Louis Blues (-145) over the Detroit Redwings as my best bet on the ICE GUYS, too high of a number for some handicappers but I don’t blink laying this number with St. Louis who I know is better than Detroit. Because the Blues are on the road we’re getting an acceptable number in a game that features two teams who are on different levels in their pursuit of the cup. I’ve parted ways with my money knowing that Mike Yeo’s team will allow us to reunite in a few hours. I don’t really have an interest in a -120 game with the outcome much more of a mystery for the sake of walking around the book telling people you received value. Are we more confident in the Blues ability to beat a bad Wings team or do we cross our fingers on a Toronto, Pittsburgh wager. Here’s another one of my rules you can add to the pile. Only bet on games where you can’t make a case for both sides. If you can come up with many clear reasons why one team is better than their opponent than isn’t that better than having one cloudy reason for a bet?

Even if you lost a -145 wager, you still would have to win two more to make money; the same as you would have to do losing a -120 wager. I don’t go higher than -150 because with a 2-1 record in a three game sequence you would be cutting too far into your profits but I refuse to lose obvious bets because I’m trying to be too cute with “value”.

As for tonight’s game, one of our rules is not to bet total unless you have two special teams units that can help your wager. The Flames and Canucks both have above average power play units so I’m comfortable asking these teams to cash our OVER.

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