Offensive Explosion to Push Sens-Pens 'Over' Total

Dana Lane

Tuesday, February 13, 2018 3:57 PM UTC

Tuesday, Feb. 13, 2018 3:57 PM UTC

The 'over' is an astounding 39-19-6 in the Pittsburgh Penguins' past 64 games vs. Atlantic Division foes, and that's the way this capper is leaning for Tuesday's home game vs. Ottawa.


[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"", "videoSize":"Large" }[/]Ottawa Senators at Pittsburgh PenguinsFree NHL Pick: Over 6Best Line Offered: Pinnacle

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3217339, "sportsbooksIds":[238,169,1275,180,300], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Sure, I’ve lost games before, but usually it isn’t because the handicapping is wrong. Monday was the exception when the Florida Panthers won a high-scoring affair against the Edmonton Oilers. I didn’t anticipate the Panthers being able to win a shootout, but they did so we’ll move on so we can start another win streak.

Tuesday’s winner comes from the Ottawa Senators-Pittsburgh Penguins matchup from PPG Paints Arena, with a puck drop of 7 p.m. ET.

The Senators better make sure that the Penguins don’t find themselves in too many power-play situations considering the Senators' 28th-ranked penalty kill will have difficulty finding success against the league’s best power play. We talk all the time about having a special teams advantage when betting totals, and the potential of Pittsburgh scoring a couple times with the man advantage is likely. The Sens average almost four penalties per game (3.74); not bad, but even with that small amount of chances Pittsburgh can do some damage.

[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "

Ghidorah... Fluffy... Crosby, Malkin, Kessel.

Other three-headed monsters have nothing on these guys.

— Pittsburgh Penguins (@penguins) February 12, 2018

The Penguins' top six has been led by their second line of Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel and Carl Hagelin. The trio has combined for 18 points in their last five games and 34 points in their last 10. To give you an idea how good that is, the second line for Ottawa, led by Derick Brassard, Zack Smith and Mark Stone has combined for just 8 points in their last 5 and 17 in their last 10.

Kessel has had his way with Ottawa over 58 career meetings with 54 points. Overall, Kessel has 65 points in 57 games this year. In many ways, he has been the Penguins' best player. Sidney Crosby finally got to the 400-goal mark Sunday against St. Louis. If he hadn’t, it likely would have come against Ottawa. In 36 career games vs. the Sens, Crosby has 38 points.

From the Senators' standpoint, we usually can’t count on too many goals, but this may be different because when you’re playing a team that likes to play quick it also creates more chances for the opposition. The Sens average just 2.63 goals per game along with a tick over 30 shots, but I think the Penguins' pace of play will allow for both teams to have plenty of chances to push this game OVER.

The perfect scenario for our wager would be for Ottawa to get ahead early in order to keep the Penguins engaged. My only fear would be for the Pens to grab an early 2-3 goal lead and sit on it for the rest of the game knowing that Ottawa doesn’t have the firepower to comeback.

From a trend perspective, the Penguins have played four straight OVERS at home and 5 of 7 overall.

comment here