NHL Picks: Value Found In Picking Anaheim Ducks Against Philadelphia Flyers

Dana Lane

Thursday, October 20, 2016 8:44 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 20, 2016 8:44 PM UTC

My readers have now cashed four straight games and five of six, I'm going to tell you why we are going to do it again with the Ducks as a road 'dog in tonight's hockey picks.


2016-17 NHL Selection record:  6-3   .667   +4.77 units


It seems like we're just cashing tickets every day now as the Winnipeg Jets came back from a 3-0 deficit last night to give us four straight wins and five of six.

Let's take a look at the lay of the NHL landscape to get a feel for betting trends.  

Home favorites are dominating the books right now.  We're going against this trend tonight but, so far, they are at 33-8-1 which are good numbers for a .786 win percentage. Again, we anticipate the tide to turn anytime now as the home favorites are cashing tickets but they aren't cashing puck-line plays. Teams receiving +1.5 are now 36-14 .720, but with that comes a premium of +200 just to get that +1.5. Too much of a price for me. It does mean that responsible players shouldn't rush out and blindly bet favorites. Remember, you could hit 60% with just a -150 bet and still have nothing to show for it. Make your NHL picks wisely.

Tonight, we have identified a live dog in the form of a Duck. 

Anaheim's offense still mirrors its productivity from last season as they are next to last in goals per game under "first year" Head Coach, Randy Carlyle. Their depth is non-existent but still I'm willing to back a top line of Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, and Nick Ritchie. 

In order to get the win for us, the Ducks can't lose the special teams battle. It's fair to say that they've been the sloppiest team in the league so far as they lead the league in penalty minutes. Opponents are +116 minutes in PIM differential so far. Thankfully their penalty kill has been spot on so it doesn't bury them but it does take time off the clock hurting them offensively.

John Gibson has shown steady improvement in net for Anaheim, now that he owns the keys to the kingdom after Frederick Anderson was shipped to Toronto. In his last start, Tuesday against New Jersey, Gibson allowed just two goals in a loss and three against the Islanders on Sunday.  The third was in overtime so although it is a goal allowed, Gibson again gave up only two over the first 60 minutes.

Tonight the Flyers honor their late owner Ed Snider. Sometimes bettors get caught up in the pageantry of a special event like a banner raising or a night to honor an individual. No different today as money is pouring in on the Flyers. Once again, we're going to be sharp and take the Ducks to cash another plus money ticket.


Free NHL Pick: Anaheim Ducks +113Best Line Offered: at MatchBook


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