NHL Picks:Stars vs. Coyotes

David Lawrence

Saturday, March 9, 2013 2:17 PM GMT

The Dallas Stars have some momentum going as they have won three of their last four games. They’ll try to keep that momentum going as they visit division rival Phoenix on Saturday, who has lost two straight.

NHL Betting

The Coyotes are a home favorite on the NHL odds but the Stars have been the better of the two teams recently, so maybe there’s some value here.

Record: 76-88 (-748)

The Dallas Stars can win because…

They are scoring goals at a healthy pace. Dallas’ offense has come to life in late February and early March as they have been lighting the lamp with frequency. They’ve scored 15 goals in their last four games and averaged 3.5 goals per game in their last 14. When you take a closer look at the numbers, the Stars have scored three or more goals in 13 of their last 14 games.

Meanwhile, the Coyotes are giving up goals aplenty as Mike Smith has hit the wall. Last year, he was a Vezina trophy-type goaltender. These days, Smith has a GAA of 3.07 and a save percentage of .894. He’s allowed 25 goals in his last six starts and when you combine that with how well Dallas’ offense has played, you’ve got a strong road play here.

The Phoenix Coyotes can win because…

The Coyotes are a decent home team. Phoenix has eight home wins on the season, which is fifth-best in the Western Conference. They are just 3-5-2 on the road, so playing at home for them is quite important.

Phoenix has dominated this series at home as they have won five of the last seven times they’ve hosted. They were bombed 6-3 by the St. Louis Blues in their latest contest but they’ve proven to be a good bounce-back team this season as they are 7-3 after giving up four or more goals in their previous game.

Outlook & Pick

As long as Mike Smith is in net for the Coyotes, I see two plays in this contest: Dallas and the over. It’s worth mentioning again that the Stars have scored three goals or more in 13 of their last 14 games. On top of that, Smith has been a wreck recently while giving up 25 goals in his last six. Dallas is decent on the road at 7-5-1 and should have an edge in net. They’ve played great against their division this season, winning 5 of 6. Take the Stars and the over for your hockey picks.

NHL Pick: Stars +117 & Over 5.5 at Pinnacle