NHL Picks: Stars & Blues To Make Score Go Over 5 Goals In Game 4

Dana Lane

Thursday, May 5, 2016 4:31 PM GMT

Thursday, May. 5, 2016 4:31 PM GMT

This is a must win for the Dallas Stars who are looking to bounce back from their recent 6-1 defeat in game three. Let's review the betting odds on this NHL Playoffs game and get a free pick.

 

Stars vs. Blues
We still don't know who will start in goal for the Dallas Stars as of Wednesday night but this back and fourth shuffling of netminders is not because Lindy Ruff has confidence in both its because he doesn't have confidence in either Antti Niemi or Kari Lehtonen and rightfully so.

Niemi has lost three straight starts while supporting a 3.88 goals against average and a horrible .839 save percentage.  Lehtonen's goal against average is even worse at 6.32 with a .813 save percentage. Make no mistake neither of these netminders are going to win a Cup by themselves. I have said all year that they are both a product of a top ranked Dallas offense that averages 3.23 goals per game and rank in the top 10 in shots allowed at just 28.9 per game. Between the two Lehtonen is the better and should be given the definitive starter role. 

Many in Dallas have called for a few line-up changes which means the natives are getting restless but you re just one win away from the series being tied at two so I don't expect Lindy Ruff to make may major changes for tonight's game. 

The Stars lack of size of defense is starting to shine through especially against bigger forwards. Neither Kris Russell or Alex Goligoski are over 5'11 and neither are over 200 pounds, in fact, Russell is barely over 170 pounds. That's tough for your top defensive pairing to contend with against the Blues David Backes, who is 6-3, 211, coming up the middle to gain position in front. When watching tonight count the amount of times that Blues skaters get in front of the crease without resistance. Without the physical advantage it hurts the Stars in the corners when battling for loose pucks.  

In order for the Stars to be effective tonight they must win the special teams and faceoff battle where they have been very effective scoring at a rate of 33% in their last five games. They also are averaging over 33 shots per game in that span and before this sounds like I'm all in on St.Louis the Dallas offense is one of the best in the league and can't be overlooked, especially with their backs against the wall. The Stars are most effective in the third period as they average over a goal per game in the final frame.  

Dallas needs to get back to their puck possession game that was effective for them in games one and two. 

From a betting trend perspective when it comes to making our NHL Pick, the Stars are not a team that stays down long. In their last 33 games after scoring two goals or less they are 23-10 in games that follow. They also bounce back from bad losses as they have won 16 of their last 21 games after losing their previous game by three or more goals. 

The 'Over' is 36-16-1 in Dallas' last 53 games after allowing five goals or more in their previous game.
 

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NHL Pick: Over 5 
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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