The Toronto Maple Leafs are coming off an encouraging 4-3 win in Boston on Tuesday night while the Buffalo Sabres are fresh off another loss, this time a 4-3 defeat at home on Tuesday to the Philadelphia Flyers.
The Buffalo Sabres can win because…
The Maple Leafs have been a dicey home bet of late. Sure, they beat the New Jersey Devils in their most recent home contest but the Leafs needed a shootout to do so. Prior to that, they had lost two straight at the Air Canada Centre.
When you take a look at the Leafs at home over the last month or so, they have some ugly losses (and costly to bettors on the NHL odds) to teams like Florida, the New York Islanders and Detroit, who rarely win on the road. Buffalo will have a shot.
The Toronto Maple Leafs can win because…
The Sabres are awful on the road. They’ve dropped 11 of their last 12 with two of those losses come in Toronto. The Leafs have also won six of the last seven meetings they’ve hosted in this series.
Toronto should play with plenty of confidence on Wednesday night as they are coming off an impressive road win in Boston on Tuesday. That now makes it two straight and with Buffalo and Montreal (at home) upcoming, the Leafs could string together a nice little streak here. They’re the better team as Buffalo is just 2-12 this season when on the road with a total of five. Take the Leafs with your NHL picks.
Outlook & Pick
Toronto is probably going to win this game, but laying the -165 sportsbooks are asking for is too much in this spot. Just take a look at some of the Leafs recent home losses and also factor that Toronto is just 12-13 (-4.6 units) when facing a team with a losing record.
Instead, I’ll go with the under. The Sabres are the league’s lowest-scoring team but should be able to keep this low-scoring with a fresh Ryan Miller between the pipes. He had the night off on Tuesday.
Pick: Under 5 at Pinnacle